Saturday, February 07, 2009

THIS IS FUNNY

The prestigious financial magazine The Economist, supposedly read by Caribou Barbie (snort), makes a funny about Obama's cap on CEO pay:

Nonetheless, even in these tough times, talented bankers are likely to find opportunities elsewhere that promise far more than $500,000.

Monty Python should do a skit based on this exchange:
INTERVIEWER: What did you do for your last firm?
UNEMPLOYED INVESTMENT BANKER: I helped it lose $60 billion.
INTERVIEWER: YOU'RE HIRED

THE RATE OF EMPLOYMENT

This is a companion post to the one immediately below. We can see that the percentage of Americans 16 and over who are working has declined throughout the Bush years and recently has taken a nose dive. SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

AT LEAST THE RNC ADMITS IT

Right-wing talk radio is a propaganda outlet for the GOP. (h/t John Amato)


OBAMA IS CORRECT...

If we don't take some counter-cyclical action (and I don't mean tax cuts), we really could be startinf to resemble 1933. (h/t Atrios, chart from Karen Tumulty at Swampland)


BOY, IT'S A GOOD THING WE HAD AN MBA PRESIDENT

Otherwise, we'd have really gotten screwed with the TARP money. Here's part of how the criminal Bush regime ripped us off (h/t Rawstory, charts from Paul Kiel at Pro Publica).


Amount Invested Estimated Value Subsidy % Subsidy $
Citigroup $25 billion $15.5 billion 38% $9.5 billion
Wells Fargo $25 billion $23.3 billion 7% $1.8 billion
JP Morgan Chase $25 billion $20.6 billion 18% $4.4 billion
Bank of America $15 billion $12.5 billion 17% $2.6 billion
Morgan Stanley $10 billion $5.8 billion 42% $4.2 billion
Goldman Sachs $10 billion $7.5 billion 25% $2.5 billion
PNC $7.6 billion $5.5 billion 27% $2.1 billion
U.S. Bancorp $6.6 billion $6.3 billion 5% $0.3 billion

Next, an analysis of two of the emergency interventions (the analysis was done before Bank of America received an extra $20 billion last month):


Amount Invested Estimated Value Subsidy % Subsidy $
AIG $40 billion $14.8 billion 63% $25.2 billion
Citigroup $20 billion $10 billion 50% $10 billion

STABENOW IS ON TARGET

On the Bill Press radio show, she said Congress was going to look into the radio wingnuts and I think it's about damn time. We have know for years that they lie with impunity, poison our politics and are almost never held accountable. Hannity and Bennett have in fact violated FEC rules about campaign assistance and I'm sure that other gasbags have done the same.

RADIO TIDBITS

Last week, Hannity had Billy Cunningham on and Uncle Billy showed his ass again by claiming that the stimulus bill would cause another Depression. Cunningham was using the same type of scare tactic that Hannity regularly derides the supporters of the bill for using but Sean didn't utter one word about Billy.

Mark Levin is steadfast in his delusions about Obama. This week he said "We elected a Marxist" and "The fact is Obama is a Marxist." What's troubling is that his callers seem to buy this insanity.

Boortz is still pushing the lie that the New Deal didn't work and his callers believe him. One caller aped Hannity's nonsense by claiming that the stimulus bill would end America as we know it and destroy the free market.

HANNITY VS. GIBBS

Last October, Robert Gibbs, a spokesman for Obama and now Press Secretary, punked Hannity on Hannity & Colmes and Hannity hasn't forgotten the smack down. On his radio show, Hannity has been attacking Gibbs regularly, calling him the stupidest press secretary ever and predicting that Gibbs will soon be fired.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

THE PARTY OF STUPID & IGNORANT

Soccer Dad, another wingnut whiz kid, writes this stunning line about the stimulus package:
The economic crisis was not caused by a lack of government spending, so it's hard to see how an increase of government spending will solve it.

He cites an op-ed by Karl Rove to back up his nonsense, so I guess we can scratch Soccer Dad off the list of people we should make an effort to compromise with.

KRUGMAN AGREES WITH ME! :-)

(h/t Joe Sudbay at AMERICAblog)

Paul Krugman realizes that we can't compromise on economics with the GOP because there is no middle ground:
Democrats believe in something more or less like standard textbook macroeconomics; Republicans believe in a doctrine under which tax cuts are the universal elixir, and government spending is almost always bad.

GOOD NEWS - SCHIP BILL PASSES

The GOP obstructionists in the Senate couldn't stop the expansion of health care coverage for children and that means another FAIL for Mark Levin, who urged his listeners to call and urge their senator to stop the bill.

U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 111th Congress - 1st Session

as compiled through Senate LIS by the Senate Bill Clerk under the direction of the Secretary of the Senate

Vote Summary
Question: On Passage of the Bill (H.R. 2 as Amended )
Vote Number: 31Vote Date: January 29, 2009, 08:57 PM
Required For Majority: 1/2Vote Result: Bill Passed
Measure Number: H.R. 2 (Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 )
Measure Title: A bill to amend title XXI of the Social Security Act to extend and improve the Children's Health Insurance Program, and for other purposes.
Vote Counts:YEAs66

NAYs32

Not Voting1

Here are the troglodytes who went along with Levin:

NAYs ---32
Barrasso (R-WY)
Bennett (R-UT)
Bond (R-MO)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Burr (R-NC)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Coburn (R-OK)
Cochran (R-MS)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Ensign (R-NV)
Enzi (R-WY)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Gregg (R-NH)
Hatch (R-UT)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Isakson (R-GA)
Johanns (R-NE)
Kyl (R-AZ)
McCain (R-AZ)
McConnell (R-KY)
Risch (R-ID)
Roberts (R-KS)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA)
Voinovich (R-OH)
Wicker (R-MS)

HM, FATS WAS MORE UNPOPULAR THAN BUSH

Max Blumenthal summarizes a poll done last October:
An October 24, 2008, poll conducted by the Democratic research firm Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner has Rush Limbaugh enjoying a public-approval rating of just 21 percent among likely voters, while 58 percent have “cold” feelings toward the right-wing radio-talk-show host. Limbaugh was the least popular of the all the political figures the firm polled. He polls seven points lower than Rev. Jeremiah “God Damn America” Wright and eight points below former Weather Underground domestic terrorist William Ayers.

Limbaugh is so unpopular that only 44 percent of Republican voters reported “warm” feelings toward him, ten points less than those who felt the same way about Limbaugh’s top competitor, Fox News’ Sean Hannity, and a full 20 points lower than Fox News itself.

You can download a PDF version of the poll here and below is the relevant graphic. YELLOW means "disapprove" and RED means "approve." Click for larger image.


A LOTTA NERVE

Victor Davis Hanson, a prominent war whore and one of Cheney's favorite writers, laments the terrible way the media treated Hillary Clinton, completely ignoring all the attacks on her made by Limbaugh, Hannity and other members of the GOP Noise Machine.

CHENEY IS STILL PLAYING THE FEAR CARD

You might recall that in the run-up to the 2006 elections, Cheney repeatedly warned us that if the Democrats make gains, civilization itself would be at risk. Now, he's using the same logic to warn (hope?) that Obama's change of direction will lead to another terrorist attack in the U.S. Spencer Ackerman demolishes Cheney's claims but the facts won't affect the radicals who believe what the talk radio gasbags say.

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

NOT FACING THE MUSIC

Let's get something clear right now: too many banks are holding paper that is worth MUCH less than face value. There is no way to cure our economic mess by pretending that we can somehow fix these banks by paying inflated prices for bad ets. The only real solution is to follow Sweden's approach and nationalize the biggest banks like Citi and start over. This will minimize the inevitable losses and stop the insane practice (e.g. TARP I) of throwing good money after bad.

For some details, see Yves Smith, Paul Krugman and Christopher Hayes.

ANOTHER GOOD IRAQ BOOK

Bob Woodward's The War Within provides a closer view of what the criminal Bush regime was doing while Iraq was falling apart in 2006. I've found a couple of facts about Teh Surge that deserve a mention.

First, the idea of a surge in troops seems to have originated with Charles Robb, a member of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group, on August 2, 2006. During an interview with Senators Warner and Levin, he asked if a surge in troops was possible to deal with the rising violence. (page 82)

Second, Rice knew in August 2006 that the Sunnis in Anbar Province were beginning to turn against Al Qaeda. (page 107)

"NO ONE COULD'VE PREDICTED"

That's one of the lines the MOTU use when describing the run-up to the Big Shitpile. It's not true, of course, but it does give the casual reader the sense that the Collapse was some sort of Act of God, kind of like a lightning strike. One person who did catch this VERY early on was Eugene Park of AIG. In the fall of 2005, he started to get worried:

He was worried about the subprime component of the CDO market. He had examined the annual report of a company involved in the subprime business. He was stunned, he told his colleagues at the time.

The subprime loans underlying many CDOs formed too large a part of the packaged debt, increasing the risk to unacceptable levels. Those loans could default at any time, anywhere across the country because the underwriting processes had been so shoddy. The diversification was a myth -- if the housing market went bust, the subprimes would collapse, like a house of cards.

Cassano decided it was time to stop. Gorton explained the decision to investors during the December 2007 webcast: "We stopped writing this business in late 2005 based on fundamental analysis and based on concerns that the model was not going to be able to handle declining underwriting standards."

By then, the firm had $80 billion worth of existing CDOs that included subprime mortgages as underlying assets.

FATS LIMBAUGH NOT IMPORTANT?

That's what some wingnuts claim in light of Fats' recent wish that Obama "fails." I've shown before that Fats is a VERY important voice for the conservatives and now I've found someone who might be considered an expert on the importance of being Fats:
Despite Obama appeals, left-right war still rages
Feb 4 05:12 AM US/Eastern
AFP

Michael Harrison, editor and publisher of the industry magazine TALKERS, said the back-and-forth in the stimulus debate underlined Limbaugh's enduring relevance for a large swathe of the US public.

"In my opinion it elevates Limbaugh's position as an entertainer and broadcaster. And it has diminished the people who should have a high position as politicians," he told AFP.

"Limbaugh and his ilk have taken over the position as the most influential voices in the Republican right, because of the vacuum of leadership by the party itself."

THE GOP ON STIMULUS "WASTE"

The GOP released a list of items it considers to be wasteful spending in the stimulus bill but a more dispassinate look shows that there really isn't all that much that really is wasteful. Steve Benen at Washington Monthly found only $18.7 billion, Bruce Webb at Angry Bear found a bit less than $19 billion and Scarecrow at Firedoglake found a little over $19 billion. I'm not defending pork and I agree that it should be eliminated but even if every GOP claim is true, it still represents a little over 2% of the bill.

ANOTHER PART OF THE NOISE MACHINE

Michael Savage seems to give over large parts of the last hour of his show to other wingnuts and one of the regulars seems to be Washington Times staffer Jeffrey T. Kuhner. Here are some snippets from his a few of his recent WT columns:
2/1/09: President Barack Obama has disgraced himself and the United States.

1/4/09: Historians will look at 2008 and say it was the year that America ceased to be a great superpower. A war-weary public threw in the towel against Islamic fascism, and embraced President-elect Barack Obama´s policy of appeasement.

12/14/08: President-elect Barack Obama and his team are modeling their domestic agenda on President Franklin D. Roosevelt's Keynesian liberalism. They are seeking to forge a modern, 21st century version of the New Deal. There is, however, one major problem. The original New Deal was a dismal failure.

DESCENT INTO THE TRIVIAL

FAUX News decides that it's good to throw the Talk Radio Repuhlicans some nice soundbites rather than any substantive discusion of the issues facing the country. FAUX seems to believe that the temperature set for the Oval Office, Joe Biden fumbling an oath of office and John Edward's affair are issues that are deeply important to America's future.

WE'VE HEARD THIS BEFORE...

NPR's Morning Edition had a report on yet another U.S. claim of stunning success against Al Qaeda in Pakistan and all I can say is: Yeah, sure. We've been told about success so many times in the past that all such claims are suspicious. Here's the newest claim:
CIA-directed airstrikes against al-Qaida leaders and facilities in Pakistan over the past six to nine months have been so successful, according to senior U.S. officials, that it is now possible to foresee a "complete al-Qaida defeat" in the mountainous region along the border with Afghanistan.

The officials say the terrorist network's leadership cadre has been "decimated," with up to a dozen senior and midlevel operatives killed as a result of the strikes and the remaining leaders reeling from the repeated attacks.

"The enemy is really, really struggling," says one senior U.S. counterterrorism official. "These attacks have produced the broadest, deepest and most rapid reduction in al-Qaida senior leadership that we've seen in several years."

Another senior U.S. official described "a significant, significant degradation of al-Qaida command and control in recent months."

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

SOMETHING YOU WON'T HEAR FROM SEAN HANNITY

(h/t Ryan Powers at Think Progress)

Hannity tries to make people think that Obama attacked our troops when he mentioned that we are causing too many civilian casualties in Afghanistan. I've pointed out several times before that Obama is correct to be concerned and on 1/17/2009, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that he was also concerned in his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee1:
SEN. REED: There's another aspect. There are so many with respect to Afghanistan. But when there are incidents in combat actions of collateral casualties, disputes about whether they are civilians or whether they are just combatants, I think having more of these types of enablers, particularly the intelligence platforms, UAVs, might miniize that. Is that something that you consider as -- ?

SEC. GATES: I think it would help. The truth of the matter is, I think 40 percent of the air missions that are called in are called in by our allies because they don't have enough forces there. So this is not strictly an American problem, if you will.

But I will tell you that I believe that the civilian casualties are doing us enormous harm in Afghanistan and we have got to do better in terms of avoiding casualties. And I say that knowing full well the Taliban mingle among the people, use them as barriers; but when we go ahead and attack, we play right into their hands. And we have got to figure out a better way to do these things or to have the Afghans in the lead, because my worry is that the Afghans come to see us as part of their problem rather than part of their solution; and then we are lost.

1Federal News Service
January 27, 2009 Tuesday
HEARING OF THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE;
SUBJECT: CHALLENGES FACING THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT;
CHAIRED BY: SENATOR CARL LEVIN (D-MI);
WITNESS: SECRETARY OF DEFENSE ROBERT GATES;
LOCATION: SD-106, DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING, WASHINGTON, D.C.
SECTION: CAPITOL HILL HEARING

RADIO TIDBITS

Because Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) has agreed to become Commerce Secretary and his replacement, J. Bonnie Newman, is supposedly a moderate Republican, Hannity called Gregg a "traitor" to the GOP.

Mark Steyn subbed for Pigboy Limbaugh and his on-air persona is odd. He heartily laughs at his own lame jokes, as if he were a little kid who was extremely pleased with himself.

ANOTHER BUSH FAIL

(h/t Atrios)

I remember Hannity crowing about the high home ownership rate as proof that Bush's economic policies were a great success. Today, not so much: the home ownership rate is about what it was in 2001.

JON STEWART NAILS JOHN THAIN

Thain was the MOTU who headed Merrill Lynch as it lost $27 billion. He defended paying bonuses despite that massive loss (from Bloomberg):
“If you don’t pay your best people, you will destroy your franchise."

Jon Stewart had a great response:
“You don’t have ‘best people’!” Mr. Stewart shouted. “You lost $27 billion! Do you live in Bizarro World?”


Here's the video clip:

BEGALA SCORES AGAIN

In November 2006, he had a perfect description of Pigboy Limbaugh and last Friday he came close to matching it on The Situation Room:

BEGALA: The real leader of the Republican Party in America today is a corpulent drug addict with a AM radio talk show, Rush Limbaugh. He's the real power in the Republican Party.

A LONG TIME AGO...

when Wall Street was also booming, I recall reading a comment by a young Ivy-league educated broker. He claimed to find his job very fulfilling because it called on nearly all of his abilities. I didn't quite believe this but since I don't have first hand experience, I couldn't directly dispute it. In the years since I read that comment, I've come to think that the only real reward on Wall Street is financial and a recent story in the NYT backs that up:
And for all the talk about taxpayer-financed bonuses, a lot of junior and midlevel executives have been told that they shouldn’t expect anything but their salaries this year. In a business where your bonus is often five times your base pay, that’s devastating news. And we’re talking about a line of work in which virtually all satisfaction is paycheck-dependent.

“Fact is that this is a terrible way to make a living — except for the money,” Ken Miller, a former vice chairman at Credit Suisse First Boston and now a private investor, said. “The lifestyle is terrible — the hours, the sucking up. These guys must feel like they’re the victims of a capricious god.”

If Wall Street really is all about the money, then we shouldn't be surprised about the meager morality of the marketplace.

AN EARLY NOMINEE FOR BEST LINE OF THE YEAR

Barney Frank gave a great response to Sen. Dim DeMint:
FRANK: ...And as far as spending versus tax cuts, I think we need to fix some highway and bridges. I never saw a tax cut fix a bridge. I never saw a tax cut give us more public transportation...

Aside from being correct, Frank's reply is easy to grasp.

MORE HYSTERIA

Michael Yon is one of the wingnuts favorite independent war bloggers/reporters and he's deeply in the tank for Israel. In this post, he repeats one of the wingnuts' favorite nightmares:
Hamas is a terrorist organization that condones and facilitates suicide bombings and will kill every Jew on the planet if they have the chance. ... Hamas, supported by Iran, is clear about their goals: they want to wipe out Israel completely, utterly, with finality. But it’s not just Israel that Hamas wants to kill; they want to kill all Jews everywhere. Complete genocide.

And when Iran has the capacity to launch rockets over to Europe or the United States, one can count on it happening.

Yeah, Iran will commit suicide by helping fulfill a Hamas wish.

SEN. JIM DEMINT IS ANOTHER TALK RADIO REPUBLICAN

(From Blue Texan at Firedoglake)

DeMint appeared on This Week and was schooled by Barney Frank about the economy. This little bit of ideological idiocy gives a suggestion of how badly DeMint was slapped down:
DEMINT: We can take a trillion dollars out of the economy and we're saying we might create 3 million jobs. If we leave it in the economy the economists at the Heritage Foundation say we create 18 million jobs, this is something we know...

The hacks at Heritage aren't worth a damn in the real world, all they do is give moron gasbags like Hannity something to use to support the Free Market Fairy.

MOTU VERSUS THE FREE MARKET

The disparity between what a financial institution thinks a particular bond is worth and what the market thinks is staggering (from the NYT):
The wild variations on the value of many bad bank assets can be seen by looking at one mortgage-backed bond recently analyzed by a division of Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency.

The financial institution that owns the bond calculates the value at 97 cents on the dollar, or a mere 3 percent loss. But S.& P. estimates it is worth 87 cents, based on the current loan-default rate, and could be worth 53 cents under a bleaker situation that contemplates a doubling of defaults. But even that might be optimistic, because the bond traded recently for just 38 cents on the dollar, reflecting the even gloomier outlook of investors.

I think it's time we ditch the notion that the MOTU know what they are doing and seriously consider nationalization.

IDEOLOGICAL ECONOMISTS

In another wingnut attack on the New Deal, two half-wit economists get op-ed space in the Wall Street Journal to spread bogus statistics. Here's just one example:

Productivity grew very rapidly after 1933, the price level was stable, real interest rates were low, and liquidity was plentiful. We have calculated on the basis of just productivity growth that employment and investment should have been back to normal levels by 1936.

Productivity growth DOES NOT translate into more jobs or higher pay. The evidence from the years 2001-2007 is clear: productivity increases do not lead to significant increases in employment or income. Here's how this Census Bureau report put it on page 6:


Household Income
Between 2006 and 2007, real median
household income rose 1.3 perc
ent,
from $49,568 to $50,233 (Figure 1
and Table 1)—a level not statistically
different from the 1999 prerecession
income peak


The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides historical information on productivity on this page and I chose to look at "output per person" in 2 sectors, manufacturing and business. Here are the graphs:



MANUFACTURING


BUSINESS

Monday, February 02, 2009

FDR, DEFICITS AND THE WINGNUTS

In trying to claim the New Deal didn't work, the wingnuts instead claim that it was all the spending for WW II that led us out of the Depression. I've shown below (here, here and here) and now I want to examine one implication of the wingnuts' claim. Below is a graph that shows both Federal outlays and deficits as a percentage of GDP. The graph was derived from these historical tables.


If the wingnuts are correct, then massive deficit spending pulled us out of the Depression, something they surely don't want to admit.

Sunday, February 01, 2009

HOW ARE THE TOP DOGS DOING?


In America, they're doing VERY well. (h/t Raw Story) The IRS has released some statistics on the wealthiest 400 tax payers in America and it looks like they've done very well in the current century.

ALICE RIVLIN ON THE MOTU

Last October, Aline van Duyn wrote in the Financial Times that the Masters of the Universe didn't get that they bear a great deal of responsibility for our economic distress and now Alice Rivlin (bio) makes the same point.
Obama Blasts Wall Street Bonuses
The President calls payouts as firms seek bailouts "the height of irresponsibility"
By Phil Mintz and Theo Francis
January 29, 2009, 6:27PM EST
Business Week

Top Executives "Disconnected" from Real World
As Washington policymakers are struggling to come up with solutions to the financial crisis, the pay issue is moving to the forefront. Alice Rivlin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, told the National Economics Club in Washington that she was surprised by Citigroup's efforts to go ahead with the jet purchase and by Thain's "tin ear for the right thing to do in the circumstances."

Rivlin added: "We have created a culture of people at the top [of companies] who are disconnected from rest of world, people who don't talk to ordinary people. I know some of them, I'm on corporate boards with them. They've somehow got to get reconnected to the real world—and a lot of them will be, because they are losing their jobs."

Back in the early 70s, I read a short book by Rivlin about Federal spending and I was impressed by her clear-headed approach to the subject. My only take-away from the book is that instead of massive programs, we should try smaller ones with the same goals to see if the approach is effective.

MYOPIC WORLD VIEW

Pam Geller at Atlas Shrugs is still pushing the "Clash of Civilizations" meme and states that Islam wants to rule the world. She writes:
The goal of Islam is a world living under Islam. Period. Who and what stands in their way? The US and her proxies -- Europe and Israel.

She neglected to include other nations who would offer resistance, such as China, India, Russia and Japan. In short, the vast majority of the world's power is against radical Islam. Geller doesn't want to admit this because the wingnuts rely on fear and hysteria to convince the groundlings.

THE DEAN IS STILL A DUNCE

David Broder, a Village Elder, calls for bi-partisanship now that the Democrats have a majority in both houses and have the WH. What "The Dean" doesn't seem to understand is the remants of the House GOP are talk radio republicans and there's really no point in worrying about them. They won't compromise their "principles" and would rather see the country damaged than have Rush Limbaugh criticize them.

THEY SHOULD STICK TO RADIO

(h/t Atrios)

The wingnuts do great on talk radio but on the Intertubes? - not so much, really. The confederacy of dunces formerly known as Pajamas Media is going completely out of the blogging business and has placed its new bet on the willingness of people to pay to watch at 2nd-rate law professor talk to a plumber.

Dennis the Peasant points out that Roger L. "The Hat" Simon thinks because PJM couldn't make any money off them, all the bloggers who got checks from PJM were actually on "the dole." Not a good way to maintain positive relations with people who can also post to blogs.