Friday, October 06, 2006

LOOKS BLEAK FOR DOBSON'S BOY

Len Munsil, the GOP choice to run for governor and Dobson's legate for Arizona, trails Janet Politano badly. Despite Arizona's status as a conservative state, most people find the religious wingnuts like Munsil disturbing.

(From LexisNexis)

The Associated Press State & Local Wire
October 5, 2006 Thursday 8:26 PM GMT

The Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center on Thursday released a poll that found Napolitano supported by 58 percent of those voters surveyed Sept. 26-Oct. 3, compared with 24 percent for Munsil, 2 percent for Libertarian Barry Hess and 16 percent undecided.

Among the voters questioned in the poll, 420 considered likely to actually vote in the Nov. 7 general election went 62 percent for Napolitano and 25 percent for Munsil, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, BRC pollster Earl de Berge said.

The BRC poll's results resembled those of a survey conducted several days earlier, Sept. 21-24, by Arizona State University. Napolitano had 64 percent, Munsil 28 percent, Hess 2 percent and 6 percent undecided in the ASU survey, based on interviews with 882 registered voters deemed likely to vote.

CLINTON V. BUSH (AGAIN)

Shammity crowed about the "great" Bush economy and as usual hasn't a clue. Let's do a "compare are contrast" -

TOTAL PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS
(IN THOUSANDS)

CLINTON
1/93 89182
9/98 107103
NET = + 17921

FREDO
1/01 111636
9/06 113625
NET = + 1989

SOURCE: WWW.BLS.GOV

ANOTHER POLL

This was reported by FAUXNEWS and paid for by the GOP:

Internal Poll Suggests Hastert Could Devastate GOP
Thursday , October 05, 2006

WASHINGTON — House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned.

"The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker," a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. "And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss."

Thursday, October 05, 2006

WHERE THE EGGMAN GETS HIS STORIES

(From LexisNexis)

Copyright 2006 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. ABC News Transcripts
SHOW: ABC World News Sunday 6:48 PM EST ABC
October 1, 2006 Sunday

MARK MCKINNON (BUSH CAMPAIGN CONSULTANT) You know, I'd say I check Drudge 30 or 40 times a day.
DAN HARRIS (ABC NEWS)(Off-camera) 30 or 40 times a day?
MARK MCKINNON (BUSH CAMPAIGN CONSULTANT) Yeah, a day.
DAN HARRIS (ABC NEWS)(Voiceover) Republican operatives keep an open line to Drudge, often using him to attack their opponents.
MARK MCKINNON (BUSH CAMPAIGN CONSULTANT) But I know that we'd have meetings and that information would find its way to Drudge and, you know, walk out meeting, 10 minutes later it's on Drudge.

MIXED NEWS

NPR's Morning Edition claims that the Foley Scandal may have little if any effect on many of the "values" voters who are part of the GOP base. A Pew Research poll found that there has been no effect of the Foley Scandal on the mid-term elections.

John at AmericaBlog notes that a TIME poll found that the Foley Scandal has hurt the GOP:

Among the registered voters who were polled, 54% said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, compared with 39% who favored the Republican — a margin that has jumped by 11 points from a similar poll conducted in June....



John also reports that an internal GOP poll shows that Hastert has deeply hurt the GOP:

House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned.

"The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker," a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. " And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss."

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

BUSH IS LOSING THE WAR ON TERROR

From the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate:


Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

SHEER LUNACY

A few days ago, Chris Plante subbed for Mark Levin and claimed Donald Rumsfeld was the greatest SECDEF in American history. There's really no limit to the amount of nonsense the wingnuts can say on the air.

More on the ESF

I've written before about the Earnings Suspense File (ESF) the Social Security Administration ahs created. Here's some background on the need for the ESF:

The Earnings Suspense File, or simply suspense file, is an electronic holding file for wage items reported on Forms W-2s that cannot be matched to the earnings records of individual workers. A mismatch occurs when SSA cannot match the name and SSN on the W-2s submitted to information in SSA’s records.

Since the beginning of the program in 1936 and through Tax Year (TY) 2003, the most recent year for which data is available, the suspense file contained about 255 million W-2s.

In 2/2006 article on the Consumer Affairs website, the ESF contained $519 billion after 2005 but according to the SSA's IG, that number is a bit inaccurate: by November, 2005, the ESF was $520 billion. Right now, the ESF is probably close to $560 billion.

RADIO TIDBITS

What do Limbaugh, Hannity, Levin and Ingraham have in common?

They've all been pushing the "activist judges" lament since the Foley Scandal broke. Perhaps they think this will keep up the spirits of the GOP base

THEY'RE SCARED

I mean the GOP/wingnuts. The Foley Scandal has them terrified that they will be swept away in the mid-term elections. I can hear the fear in the babble from Limbaugh, Hannity and Mark Levin. This scandal, which may reach the Speaker of the House, has generated an enormous amount of public interest (the AOL board on the scandal now has over 25,000 posts) and that's BAD for the GOP. Zogby's lastest shows that Dems lead in 11 of 15 House seats currenty held by the GOP:

The Democratic edge is such that their candidates lead in seven of the nine House districts that contain Republican advantages in party identification.

MORE "JUST US" INTOLERANCE

Christian Leader: Romney's Mormon Faith Could Hinder Presidential Bid
By JOSH GERSTEIN - Staff Reporter of the Sun
October 3, 2006

A prominent and powerful evangelical Christian leader, James Dobson, said yesterday that the Mormon faith practiced by Governor Romney of Massachusetts could pose a serious obstacle if Mr. Romney makes a bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

"I don't believe that conservative Christians in large numbers will vote for a Mormon but that remains to be seen, I guess," Mr. Dobson said on a syndicated radio program hosted by a conservative commentator, Laura Ingraham.

WHEN WINGNUTS ATTACK...

I love this! The Washington Times calls for Speaker Hastert to resign:

Resign, Mr. Speaker
TODAY'S EDITORIAL
October 3, 2006

(EXCERPTS)

On Friday, Mr. Hastert dissembled, to put it charitably, before conceding that he, too, learned about the e-mail messages sometime earlier this year. Late yesterday afternoon, Mr. Hastert insisted that he learned of the most flagrant instant-message exchange from 2003 only last Friday, when it was reported by ABC News. This is irrelevant. The original e-mail messages were warning enough that a predator -- and, incredibly, the co-chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children -- could be prowling the halls of Congress. The matter wasn't pursued aggressively. It was barely pursued at all.

House Speaker Dennis Hastert must do the only right thing, and resign his speakership at once. Either he was grossly negligent for not taking the red flags fully into account and ordering a swift investigation, for not even remembering the order of events leading up to last week's revelations -- or he deliberately looked the other way in hopes that a brewing scandal would simply blow away. He gave phony answers Friday to the old and ever-relevant questions of what did he know and when did he know it? Mr. Hastert has forfeited the confidence of the public and his party, and he cannot preside over the necessary coming investigation, an investigation that must examine his own inept performance.

Wait, there's more :

Congressional aide says he told Hastert's office about Foley's conduct 2 years ago
By DEVLIN BARRETT
Associated Press Writer

Conservative activist Richard A. Viguerie was among those who called for Hastert to step down. "The fact that they just walked away from this, it sounds like they were trying to protect one of their own members rather than these young boys," Viguerie said on Fox News.

Icing on the cake:

October Surprise in This Campaign Puts Republicans On the Spot
By Catherine Dodge and Jay Newton-Small
Oct. 3 (Bloomberg)

David Bossie, president of the Washington-based advocacy group Citizens United, said Hastert had ``failed in his duty to investigate and prosecute this matter before it became a public relations problem,'' a failure that Bossie said was ``morally repugnant'' and may also cost Republicans control of the House.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

HEALTHCARE IN NORTH AMERICA

Short version: Canadians have better care.

Objectives. We compared health status, access to care, and utilization of medical services in the United States and Canada and compared disparities according to race, income, and immigrant status.

Methods. We analyzed population-based data on 3505 Canadian and 5183 US adults from the Joint Canada/US Survey of Health. Controlling for gender, age, income, race, and immigrant status, we used logistic regression to analyze country as a predictor of access to care, quality of care, and satisfaction with care and as a predictor of disparities in these measures.

Results. In multivariate analyses, US respondents (compared with Canadians) were less likely to have a regular doctor, more likely to have unmet health needs, and more likely to forgo needed medicines. Disparities on the basis of race, income, and immigrant status were present in both countries but were more extreme in the United States.
Conclusions. United States residents are less able to access care than are Canadians. Universal coverage appears to reduce most disparities in access to care.

SOURCE: Access to Care, Health Status, and Health Disparities in the United States and Canada: Results of a Cross-National Population-Based Survey., By: Lasser, Karen E., Himmelstein, David U., Woolhandler, Steffie, American Journal of Public Health, 00900036, Jul2006, Vol. 96, Issue 7

KRISTOL: BUSH PLAYS POLITICS WITH OUR SOLDIERS' LIVES

(Via Atrios)

From 8ackgr0und N015e at Daily KOs:


SHEPARD SMITH: "Can't you say beyond...beyond and to the exclusion of every reasonable doubt that what's happening in Iraq is not working as we had hoped it would happen?

BILL KRISTOL: Yes.

SMITH: That the terrorism is getting worse? That they are feeding off it? Today, one side is talking about secession if they don't get over it, that the sectarian violence is spreading, that we're clearing out one area and not able to hold it and the insurgents ... that stay the course isn't working? Any more than, maybe, cut and run would work? And that everyone seems to know, but won't say the answer is to add troops not take them away? Where are the people who are looking out for our best interests?

KRISTOL: Well, I've said that many many times, so often I've been ridiculed for saying "more troops, more troops, more troops." I hope the president...

SMITH: If they really want to win it!

KRISTOL: I agree...I hope...

SMITH: But I think they are just paying lip service to all this! [yelling]

KRISTOL: Well, I hope not because it really wouldn't be the right thing to do and I think President Bush wants to do the right thing and I think he knows there's a problem. He can't probably do anything until election day. I very much hope after election day he takes a fresh look at Iraq, sends enough troops, surges the...goes on the offensive there and plays for victory because..

SMITH: Bill..

KRISTOL: it's just too important to just, you know...

SMITH: It's horrifying that you just said he can't do anything until after the election. We've got men and women over there who are dying every day and you just said that the man who you support can't do anything even though you believe he knows it's wrong.

KRISTOL: I...I...urged him...

SMITH: OK, but what is worse that? What is worse than that, Bill Kristol? This isn't working. Well, isn't that what you are saying?

KRISTOL: It's not working....

SMITH: It's not working.

KRISTOL: It's not working, but some of the alternatives would work, would work worse and to be fair to him he has been....look ... I....Two months ago a Democratic senator said to me, I was saying Bush was going to stay the course and I admire him for his sticktoitive.. for his courage on Iraq and he said, "You're kid... You're crazy...everyone in Washington knows he is going to pull troops down before election day. He wants to give those Republican congressional candidates the benefit of seeing troops come home." It is to Bush's credit that he did not do that. We have moved a few more troops into Iraq. Bush has committed...

SMITH: A few more troops.


KRISTOL: We should... We should ...

SMITH: We're still losing ground in city after city every day...

KRISTOL: I agree we should move more, but I think Bush has done...at least he has held his own ...ummm... I don't know...it's going back and forth there right now... I agree we could hit a crisis in two, three, four months unless we surge troops after the election. I thinks its hard to ask Bush to do something in the middle of this election season. We've seen how poisonous this political debate has gotten and I think... I just hope... I think he's right to hang tough and I hope he does the right thing after election day.

SMITH: That's a disgusting and repulsive reality Bill you have to admit that. That we can't do anything about something that is not working and where people are dying until after our elections are over...

KRISTOL: Well, we could do something... we should do something...but I'm just telling you that....

SMITH: The political reality is we can't.

KRISTOL: it's been a poisonous political debate ...both sides.

SMITH: If I were the mother of a father of a young man who dies between now and that election in this war I would be raising holy hell. Wouldn't you?

KRISTOL: Well, no....

SMITH: Wouldn't you, Bill? If you believed that this isn't working...

KRISTOL: No. They do..they're doing..They think they're doing the best the military strategy

SMITH: Do you think they think that, Bill, really?

KRISTOL: I think they, I think so.

SMITH: Because you don't think so, you just said so.

KRISTOL: Well, I've been critical of them. I think they should send more troops, but other people differ. I think Bush is going to reconsider when he thinks uh..after he gets through this election here. I wish he would have reconsidered six months ago. I urged him to six months ago. He chose not to. But to be fair to him, to be fair to him I think he is doing what he thinks is his best for the country and I think he is right, that the alternative of somehow pulling down wouldn't help. And incidentally, for the mothers and fathers who have kids there my solution does not...does not... decrease the chance of casualties. I'm willing to.. I think we may have to take more casualties there.

SMITH: To win! But what they keep saying is they want to win. And yet you talk to soldiers and captains and colonels who come home or who talk to you on the phone or who send you an email and they say, "Look! We win individual battles. We leave the individual battle and go to the next town and the insurgents come back." It's happening in Afghanistan right now!

KRISTOL: I agree.

SMITH: The Taliban had been wiped out. Now the poppy production is up to supplying 92% because we don't have enough people there. So how fair is it to the people of this country and to the world to be in a process that you know is not working, to know what the solutions are, yet because of the election system and the political process you allow a losing thing to continue?

KRISTOL: Well I think we can make it a winning thing, I think Bush will make it a winning thing, It's a democracy. It has drawbacks.

I agree on Afghanistan,incidentally, that's another place where we're going to have to increase troop levels in the next few weeks.

SMITH: Yeah, but when?

KRISTOL: Soon. S


MITH: We'll see. Bill Kristol, good of you to come.

KRISTOL: Thank's Shep.

SMITH: There's breaking news.

NOPE, NOT WOLFOWITZ

Earlier I had written that George Packer identified Ravelstein as Bellow's version of Paul Woflowitz. It looks like either I or Packer were mistaken: the model was Allan Bloom.

Cynthia Ozick:

In a review of Saul Bellow's novel "Ravelstein," whose sensualist hero was explicitly based on the University of Chicago professor Allan Bloom, she dismisses the all-too-human urge to identify fictional characters with real-world individuals.

SOURCE:The Canon as Cannon
New York Times Book Review, The (NY) July 2, 2006 Author: WALTER KIRN

THE DIN IN THE HEAD Essays. By Cynthia Ozick. Illustrated. 243 pp. Houghton Mifflin Company. $24.

Far from being a conservative ideologue, Bloom, a University of Chicago professor of political philosophy who died in 1992, was an eccentric interpreter of Enlightenment thought who led an Epicurean, quietly gay life. He had to be prodded to write his best-selling book by his friend Saul Bellow, whose novel "Ravelstein" is a wry tribute to Bloom.

SOURCE: Allan Bloom and the Conservative Mind
New York Times Book Review, The (NY) September 4, 2005 Author: Jim Sleeper


Because he was a graduate student at the University of Chicago during the ascendancy of political philosophers Leo Strauss and Allan Bloom - a thinly disguised Wolfowitz appears in "Ravelstein," Saul Bellow's novel about Bloom - many attempts have been made to trace to them the pedigree of his thinking.

SOURCE: The real Paul Wolfowitz steps forward
Ocala Star-Banner (FL) May 16, 2005 Author: George Will Writes for the Washington Post Writers Group.


Finally, Irving Kristol, dubbed the neocon godfather, decided to take the name as a compliment. He defined a neoconservative as "a liberal mugged by reality." (That phrase also summarizes the plot of the Great Neocon Novel, "Mr. Sammler's Planet," by Saul Bellow. Bellow's last novel, "Ravelstein," actually has a character modeled after Wolfowitz.)

SOURCE: The evolution of neocons
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (PA) April 24, 2005 Author: Michael Kinsley



Many of Strauss's ideas were popularized by Allan Bloom, who was the author of the best seller "The Closing of the American Mind" and a mentor to both Mr. Fukuyama and Mr. Wolfowitz (who became the inspiration for a minor character in "Ravelstein," Saul Bellow's 2000 roman à clef about Bloom).

CRITIC'S NOTEBOOK How Books Have Shaped U.S. Policy
New York Times, The (NY) April 5, 2003 Author: MICHIKO KAKUTANI


AHA!!! Here's the Wolfowitz character:

In "Ravelstein," a biography of Bloom in the form of a novel published in 2000, Saul Bellow depicts the information-avid professor Abe Ravelstein fielding calls on his cellphone from former students who have made their way to high places in government. His disciples include Philip Gorman, a Wolfowitz-like official in the first Bush administration who rings up his former professor to show that he's in the loop.

SOURCE: The Nation: Leo-Cons A Classicist's Legacy: New Empire Builders
New York Times, The (NY) May 4, 2003 Author: JAMES ATLAS


There is an entertaining echo of his frustration in "Ravelstein," Saul Bellow's roman à clef about Wolfowitz's college guru, Allan Bloom. In the novel, Wolfowitz has a walk-on part as a former student who has made it big in Washington and periodically delights his old tutor by phoning in tidbits of inside dope.

SOURCE: The Sunshine Warrior
New York Times Magazine, The (NY) September 22, 2002 Author: Bill Keller


There is even a minor character in Saul Bellow's novel "Ravelstein" inspired by Mr. Wolfowitz: a gifted Pentagon official named Philip Gorman who phones Abe Ravelstein (a thinly disguised Allan Bloom) from time to time with inside information (unclassified, of course). "It's only a matter of time before Phil Gorman has cabinet rank, and a damned good thing for the country," Abe Ravelstein says at one point.

SOURCE: In a Humble World, Defense Deputy Stands Firm
New York Times, The (NY) April 2, 2001 Author: ELAINE SCIOLINO


Bloom had a scary intensity. He loved jokes and devoured information, about both high and low culture. He stuttered. He bought outrageously expensive French suits. He was unmarried, his sexuality a bit of a mystery among his students. "It was sort of, Don't ask, don't tell," said his protege, Paul Wolfowitz, the former assistant secretary of state who is an inspiration in "Ravelstein" for Philip Gorman, a Defense Department official who delights Ravelstein with phone briefings about the gulf war.

SOURCE: With Friends Like Saul Bellow
New York Times Magazine, The (NY) April 16, 2000 Author: D.T. Max