SEVEN PERCENT SOLUTION

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October 14, 2006 Saturday
SOONER EDITION

SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. B-7

LENGTH: 701 words

HEADLINE: WILL THE GOP LEVEE BREAK?;
THE DEMOCRATS ARE SURGING, BUT VICTORY IS FAR FROM ASSURED

BYLINE: Paul Krugman

The key point is that African Americans, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic, are highly concentrated in a few districts. This means that in close elections many Democratic votes are, as political analysts say, wasted -- they simply add to huge majorities in a small number of districts, while the more widely spread Republican vote allows the GOP to win by narrower margins in a larger number of districts.

My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that because of this "geographic gerrymander," even a substantial turnaround in total congressional votes -- say, from the three-percentage-point Republican lead in 2004 to a five-point Democratic lead this year -- would leave the House narrowly in Republican hands. It looks as if the Democrats need as much as a seven-point lead in the overall vote to take control.