OUR INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES REPORTS ON 1/11/07

The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence had a hearing on "Current and projected national security threats" on January 11th. Here's some of my own cherry-picking from the prepared statements.

NEGROPONTE, Director of National Intelligence


Al-Qaida is the terrorist organization that poses the greatest threat to US interests, including to the Homeland.

Use of a conventional explosive continues to be the most probable al-Qaida attack scenario.


Despite these positive developments, Iraq is at a precarious juncture. Communal violence, accelerated by AQI's attack on the Samarra mosque in February 2006 and scant common ground between Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds have polarized politics. Prime Minister Maliki's national reconciliation agenda is still at its initial stages. The various parties have not yet shown the ability to compromise effectively on the thorny issues of de-Bathification, constitutional reform, federalism, and central versus regional control over hydrocarbon revenues. Provision of essential public services is inadequate; oil output remains below pre-war levels; hours of electrical power available have declined and remain far below demand; and inflationary pressures have grown since last year.

Muller, Director of the FBI

At the same time, the growing Sunni extremist movement that al-Qa‘id a successfully spearheaded has evolved from being directly led by al-Qa‘ida , to a global jihadi movement that is able to conduct attacks independently.

Despite the successes this year in depleting al-Qa‘ida‘s senior ranks and disrupting ongoing attack planning, the group has been able to rebuild itself and remain viable...

Al-Sahab, al-Qa‘ida‘s official media component, released 48 videos last year, the most al-Qa‘ida ever released in one year.


We glean from this that not only is Al-Qaeda still a threat, it has also spread its ideology throughout the world. This is one reason why Fredo's recent escalation plan is so puzzling: It doesn't concentrate on Anbar Province, the main area for Al-Qaeda in Iraq.