Saturday, January 10, 2009

FDR, THE GREAT DEPRESSION AND THE GDP


This is just a little more evidence that refutes the wingnut claim that FDR's New Deal was ineffective.

SOURCE:USA GDP annual pattern and long-term trend, 1920-40, in billions of constant dollars, based on data in Susan Carter, ed. Historical Statistics of the US: Millennial Edition (2006) series Ca9.

THIS IS RICH

The GOP hypocrites are upset that Al Franken will be a senator and have the gall to accuse him of partisanship when they cheered Caribou Barbie for implying that liberals and Democrats weren't "real Americans."
GOP sees Franken as top public enemy
By ALEXANDER BURNS 1/10/09 2:56 PM EST
The Politico

Marty Seifert, the Republican leader in the Minnesota House of Representatives, said Franken’s long record of antagonizing conservatives would make it difficult for him to connect with voters who supported Coleman.

Prominent conservative Rush Limbaugh, who Franken mocked in the title of one of his books, has already jabbed Franken on his radio show, telling listeners in December that Franken “won’t quit [the Senate race] because he doesn’t know how to get a real job…He’s a pathetic figure.”

Republican activist Joe Repya, a retired military officer who considered running against Coleman in the GOP primary, said Franken is “viewed by both sides as a mean-spirited, carpet-bagging, foul-mouthed sexist supported by Hollywood money.”

I've read two of Franken's books and each one is a humorous and honest expose of the fundamental poverty of conservative ideology.

Friday, January 09, 2009

YES DEAR, THE NEW DEAL DID WORK

The wingnuts have been fairly successful in promoting the meme that the New Deal didn't do anything to get us out of the Great Depression, even getting it into USA Today. David Sirota has a nice post debunking this bit of wingnut crap and I'll share a table and a graph.

ROOSEVELT PRE-WWII NEW DEAL
1932 Unemployment Rate: 23.6% (12.8 million total unemployed)
1940 Unemployment Rate: 14.6% (8.1 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: -9.0
Total unemployment percentage change: -36.7%



PALIN NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME

Caribou Barbie has been whining about how the press treated her more harshly than it is treating Caroline Kennedy, to which I say: TOUGH SHIT! Barbie still doesn't seem to get that she was far out of her league. She even whines that Tina Fey and Katie Couric unfairly profited from her inability to speak normal English.

Barbie also got a little bitchy:
After being shown a clip of Couric complaining to David Letterman that no post-election interviewer has asked Palin why she would not tell the CBS anchor what newspapers she reads, the Alaska governor responded: “Because, Katie, you’re not the center of everybody’s universe.”

Barbie doesn't seem to realize that Katie asked that question on behalf of the American public and her attempt to make it personal is simply immature.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

THIS REMINDED ME OF RUMSFELD...

Back in 2004, Sec. of Defense "Stuff happens" was found to have used an autopen to sign letters of condolences to the survivors of soldiers killed in Iraq or Afghanistan:

On a Deadly Day in Iraq, Republicans Step Up Debate Over Whether Rumsfeld Should Stay
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG

Published: December 20, 2004

Over the weekend, Mr. Rumsfeld's critics gained some new ammunition with the disclosure that the defense secretary had not personally been signing condolence letters to the families of soldiers killed in Iraq.

In a statement first issued to the military newspaper Stars and Stripes, Mr. Rumsfeld said he would now begin signing the letters himself. A Defense Department official said Sunday that Mr. Rumsfeld had used an automated signing machine, a tool commonly used by public officials, but only to ensure that families received their letters quickly.


This sort of indifference is still with Bush's DOD:
Army Sends 'Dear John Doe' Letters to Families of Fallen Troops
By Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 8, 2009; Page A05

The Army mistakenly sent letters addressed "Dear John Doe" to 7,000 family members of soldiers who died in Iraq and Afghanistan, unleashing calls from troubled relatives and prompting a formal apology yesterday from the Army's top general.

The letters, mailed late last month by the Army's Casualty and Mortuary Affairs Operation Center in Alexandria, contained information about private organizations that assist families of the fallen. But in what the Army called a printing error by a contractor, the letters did not contain specific names and addresses; instead, they had the placeholder greeting "Dear John Doe."

PANETTA IS A MESSAGE...

and the message is "no more torture."

David Neiwert finds that Obama is determined to bring our intelligence gathering procedures back into compliance with the law and picking Leon Pannett to head the CIA is part of that message:

... I think what people will see is that we are putting together a top-notch intelligence team that is not only going to assure that I get the best possible intelligence -- unvarnished -- but that the intelligence community is no longer geared toward telling the president what they think the president wants to hear but instead are going to be delivering the information that the president needs to make critical decisions to keep the American people safe.

I think what you're also going to see is a team that is committed to breaking with some of the past practices and concerns that have, I think, tarnished the image of the agencies and intelligence agencies and U.S. foreign policy.

WINGNUT BFF


Drudge and Coulter have been wingnut pals for years and he decided to make shit up about NBC & Coulter to increase the buzz about her new book. She returned the favor by telling this whopper on the Today Show:
COULTER: The point is, I was canceled twice. And it wasn't until the Drudge Report ran a headline on its own reporting -- and the Drudge Report has never had to retract a report the way --

LAUER: You know -- you know what -- you know what that expression is --

COULTER: -- NBC News has.

"FOAMER" LEVIN AND THE FRINGE

Mark Levin is as close to hysteria as Dick Cheney was before the 2006 mid-term elections. He's back to accusing Obama of being a socialist and adds that some of Obama's proposals are Stalinesque! He also claimed that "Obama and his ilk" hate the free market and liberals don't believe in private property. This can only appeal to the lunatic fringe and I guess there are enough people in it to make Levin's radio show profitable but they won't be anywhere near enough for Federal elections.

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

STILL FUMING ABOUT NEWS PHOTOS

My first post on this blog puzzled over the wingnuts desire to attribute some nefarious intentions to press photos. Over 4 years later, they are still at it, this time accusing Reuters of supporting Hamas because of a minor error in a few photo captions.

SCHIAVO REDUX

The Fundies just don't seem to get it - Americans by and large aren't buying their crap but they persist in their backwardness. They will now try to re-fight the Schiavo travesty despite the fact that a large majority of Americans opposed them. In a way, I'm glad they are doing this because the more exposure these fanatics get, the better off the rest of us will be in the future.

PARTY BEFORE COUNTRY: THE GOP'S 1ST RULE

Despite the economic threat we are ALL facing, the conservatives are still stuck on being obstructionists who are only thinking about pandering to their dwindling base. Prime example: Patrick Ruffini of NextRight:
The GOP's number one priority politically is to set into motion a series of events that will make Obama look more ineffective, partisan, and unpopular than he is today.

THE STATES ARE HURTING, HERE'S ONE EXAMPLE

Arizona may run out of money before the end of February, forcing it to borrow money to pay the bills. This won't be helped by any "shovel-ready" stimulus package.
State could be out of money by next month
AZ fund balance might fall to negative $50M on Feb. 23

The Associated Press
Tucson, Arizona Published: 01.05.2009

PHOENIX — Arizona could run out of money to pay its bills as early as next month and may have to borrow money in the short term for the first time since World War II, state Treasurer Dean Martin said.

An analysis by the treasurer's staff shows that the state's fund balance could dip to negative $50 million on Feb. 23 at the earliest and mid-March under a more optimistic scenario.

"No matter what (lawmakers) do with the budget, we'll be negative in March or April," Martin said.

With no reserves to cover the bills, that could force the state to borrow at least that much, if not far more.

ODD BELIEFS

A couple of days ago, I heard an invited female guest on Savage's radio program read off a lot of claims about Hamas and I was struck by one: Hamas thinks the Rotary Club is a tool of the Zionists and should be eliminated. I thought this was just more wingnuttery but it may be true. I found 2 online sources for Hamas' Charter (one, two) and each backs up the woman's claim.

Here's the relevant passage:
Article Seventeen: The Role of Muslim Women
The Muslim women have a no lesser role than that of men in the war of liberation; they manufacture men and play a great role in guiding and educating the [new] generation. The enemies have understood that role, therefore they realize that if they can guide and educate [the Muslim women] in a way that would distance them from Islam, they would have won that war. Therefore, you can see them making consistent efforts [in that direction] by way of publicity and movies, curricula of education and culture, using as their intermediaries their craftsmen who are part of the various Zionist Organizations which take on all sorts of names and shapes such as: the Freemasons, Rotary Clubs, gangs of spies and the like. All of them are nests of saboteurs and sabotage. Those Zionist organizations control vast material resources, which enable them to fulfill their mission amidst societies, with a view of implementing Zionist goals and sowing the concepts that can be of use to the enemy. Those organizations operate [in a situation] where Islam is absent from the arena and alienated from its people. Thus, the Muslims must fulfill their duty in confronting the schemes of those saboteurs. When Islam will retake possession of [the means to] guide the life [of the Muslims], it will wipe out those organizations which are the enemy of humanity and Islam.

Monday, January 05, 2009

DRUDGE SCREWS UP AGAIN

He reports that NBC has banned Coulter for life! (Memeorandum) Will he offer a retraction?

TORTURE AND THE CIA

Former Clinton chief of staff Leon Panetta is Obama's choice to head the CIA and the wingnuts are disappointed he chose someone who opposes torture. Uncle Jimbo is still "economical with the facts":
Since his left wing vetoed John Brennan for the crime of having served while W was President, even though he opposed most of the programs they hate

Glenn Greenwald PROVED that Brennan supported torture and that is the reason we opposed him.

I AGREE WITH ATRIOS & THERS

The wingnuts have been trying to figure out why their "great ideas" haven't gone over well with the American people. Atrios has one answer:
But, basically, they fail because they and their readers are, well, pretty stupid.

I like Thers' answer a little better:
Twitter, shmitter. The problem facing "conservatives" is that there is no brand of "conservatism" that is not completely insane.

Oh yeah, they also lie all the time.

ANOTHER MEDIA MATTERS SUCCESS?

UPDATE: Politico found that Coulter announced the cancellation on her website, no word yet from NBC.
UPDATE II: Politico reports that NBC bumped Coulter solely for news reasons.

Media Matters started a campaign to get NBC to cancel Ann Coulter's appearance on the Today Show and during the first hour of his radio show, Hannity said that she wouldn't be appearing and that was because her new book was too critical of the media. As of now, there's nothing on the Today site about the cancellation.

THE FED GETS IT, HERITAGE HACKS DON'T

Two members of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve have called for massive stimulus spending, no matter what the hacks at Heritage think:
Fed Officials Endorse ‘Big Stimulus’ to Battle U.S. Recession
By Scott Lanman and Vivien Lou Chen

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, after taking the historic step of cutting the benchmark interest rate to as low as zero, are calling for greater government spending to help revive the U.S. economy.

San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said yesterday at an economics conference in San Francisco that “it’s worth pulling out all the stops” with an economic recovery package. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, told the same gathering he believes a “big stimulus is appropriate.”

UNCLE MILTON IS WRONG AGAIN

Paul Krugman points out that Milton Friedman's theory of the Great Depression has been falsified:
Milton Friedman, in particular, persuaded many economists that the Federal Reserve could have stopped the Depression in its tracks simply by providing banks with more liquidity, which would have prevented a sharp fall in the money supply. Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, famously apologized to Friedman on his institution’s behalf: “You’re right. We did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

It turns out, however, that preventing depressions isn’t that easy after all. Under Mr. Bernanke’s leadership, the Fed has been supplying liquidity like an engine crew trying to put out a five-alarm fire, and the money supply has been rising rapidly. Yet credit remains scarce, and the economy is still in free fall.

Friedman’s claim that monetary policy could have prevented the Great Depression was an attempt to refute the analysis of John Maynard Keynes, who argued that monetary policy is ineffective under depression conditions and that fiscal policy — large-scale deficit spending by the government — is needed to fight mass unemployment. The failure of monetary policy in the current crisis shows that Keynes had it right the first time. And Keynesian thinking lies behind Mr. Obama’s plans to rescue the economy.

THE MOTU DON'T UNDERSTAND STATISTICS

The sophisticated risk models used on Wall Street are a joke, as I wrote previously, and Yves at Naked Capitalism points out the Joe Nocera of the NY Times doesn't understand stats either. Yves includes this nice little factoid about how absurd these models are:
As Paul De Grauwe, Leonardo Iania, and Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser pointed out in "How Abnormal Was the Stock Market in October 2008?":

We selected the six largest daily percentage changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during October, and asked the question of how frequent these changes occur assuming that, as is commonly done in finance models, these events are normally distributed. The results are truly astonishing. There were two daily changes of more than 10% during the month. With a standard deviation of daily changes of 1.032% (computed over the period 1971-2008) movements of such a magnitude can occur only once every 73 to 603 trillion billion years. Since our universe, according to most physicists, exists a mere 20 billion years we, finance theorists, would have had to wait for another trillion universes before one such change could be observed. Yet it happened twice during the same month. A truly miraculous event. The other four changes during the same month of October have a somewhat higher frequency, but surely we did not expect these to happen in our lifetimes.

I DON'T GET THE LOGIC

Many people have a part-time job, perhaps more than one, so I fail to see the logic in denying them unemployment benefits.
Obama Considers Major Expansion in Aid to Jobless
By JACKIE CALMES and CARL HULSE
Published: January 3, 2009
NY Times

One proposal, as described by Democratic advisers, would extend unemployment compensation to part-time workers, an idea that Congressional Republicans have blocked in the past.

THE MOTU ARE A MORAL HAZARD

I guess we can't get rid of all of them but we need to make drastic changes to the incentive structures on Wall Street. Michael Lewis and David Einhorn have a 2-part op-ed in the NYT (part one, part two) that exposes some of these structures and this one happened to be my favorite:
If you work for the enforcement division of the S.E.C. you probably know in the back of your mind, and in the front too, that if you maintain good relations with Wall Street you might soon be paid huge sums of money to be employed by it.

The commission’s most recent director of enforcement is the general counsel at JPMorgan Chase; the enforcement chief before him became general counsel at Deutsche Bank; and one of his predecessors became a managing director for Credit Suisse before moving on to Morgan Stanley.

SUNDAY RADIO TIDBITS

Billy Cunningham is best described as a Sean Hannity clone and he has a 3 hour show on Sunday night that took over locally for the Drudge Report. Tonight I heard the same lies that Hannity spews, such as the New Deal failed to help pull us out of the Depression, and I heard him call a listener who disagreed with Billy's economics a "fool."

Sunday, January 04, 2009

ANOTHER WINGNUT NARRATIVE BREAKS DOWN

A local wingnut radio station used to air a promo they made from callers to the station and part of it included statements that thanked them for representing the views of "most of us" and for saying what most of us think "behind closed doors." On an AOL News message board, I came across one poster who was astounded to find that most middle-class Americans DON'T agree with the movement conservative agenda. It seems the wingnuts really need to believe that their views are representative of the majority of Americans, though I can't imagine WHY they need to believe that. IF the wingnuts really believe in individual freedom, they shouldn't need the false comfort of thinking most Americans agree with them.

Maha sums up this delusion:

A cornerstone of the right-wing worldview is the belief that most Americans — most white Americans, anyway — believe the same things righties believe. If they see another American expressing a different worldview, either this person is “loony” — an aberration; not to be taken seriously — or “they’re just being PC,” meaning most Americans who express liberal ideas are just saying what they are supposed to say, not what they really believe. And if conservatives lose elections, it’s either because of voter fraud or media bias, not because most American don’t think the way righties do.