Wednesday, December 07, 2011

CARTER, REAGAN & FATS LIMBAUGH

On November 30, 2011, Fats made this claim:
In a Gallop poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed. The same thing's happening now.
I don't remember the polls at the time but LexisNexis does and Fats is wrong again:
Facts on File World News Digest

October 31, 1980

Poll Standings Tighten

SECTION: PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

LENGTH: 205 words



Most major polls indicated that the presidential contest between President Carter and Ronald Reagan had tightened to the point of a toss-up. [See p. 739F2]

On the eve of the debate, a Gallup Poll found Carter had risen to 45% support among prospective voters to 42% for Reagan.
The findings, released Oct. 27, exactly reversed a Reagan margin over Carter detected early in the month. Independent  candidate John B. Anderson was getting 9% support in the Gallup survey.

Carter was leading in polls published Oct. 26 by Time and Newsweek magazines. The time poll put Carter ahead of Reagan, 42% to 41%. Newsweek's survey gave Carter a 41% to 40% edge.

A New York Times-CBS News Poll available Oct. 23 had Carter ahead 39% to 38% for Reagan.

Reagan was leading Carter in several other surveys -- 45% to 42% in an ABC News-Louis Harris Poll released Oct. 27; 42% to 36% in an Associated Press-NBC News Poll also available Oct. 27.

Reagan was leading most major surveys of electoral vote counts, which also had narrowed in the last month, with Carter coming up, Reagan going down. A week before the election, neither seemed to command a clear majority of electoral votes needed to gain the presidency.

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