IS BUSINESS WEEK GETTING SHRILL?

Is It Time to Bag Baghdad?
Business Week Online
6/8/05
By Stan Crock

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20050609/bs_bw/nf20050689924db056;_ylt=And4G9PrP_OsCpYzr3ME6Pis0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2amdibDI5BHNlYwNicw--


The best way for the occupation force in Iraq to establish legitimacy would have been to get a reputation for delivering everything from water and electricity to education and health care. U.S. troops needed to show Iraqis some benefit arising from Uncle Sam's presence in their country.

Phebe Marr just returned from a visit to Iraq -- or more precisely to the Green Zone, the only place safe enough to venture in. She is a retired professor who specialized in modern Iraq history and who now is a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute for Peace.

Marr sees a few glimmers of hope in a dismal situation, and she has some ideas about what should be done as we move ahead. The focal point of efforts in Iraq, Marr says, should be on the provinces rather than Baghdad. Because of the insurgency, Marr says, Baghdad is cut off from much of the rest of the country, so the capital can provide only limited assistance to other parts of the nation.

The good news is that a real and independent politics is taking hold as policymakers gear up to write a new constitution. Even the Sunnis are rethinking their boycott of Iraqi politics. The bad news is that all of this is time-consuming, and Iraq doesn't have the luxury of time before it starts to satisfy basic needs. "People aren't concerned about the constitution. They want electricity," Marr says.

DISMAL NUMBERS. Take a look at some of the data. Oil production of 2.1 million barrels a day remains below the prewar level of 2.9 million barrels, according to Brookings Institution data. Exports of oil, a critical revenue source, currently are 1.3 million a day, a sharp drop from the prewar level of 2.1 million barrels, Brookings says.

Average electricity production in May was 3,700 megawatts, well below the prewar level of 4,400 megawatts, partly because capacity is turned off so frequently. The U.S. and Iraqi officials "need to put more emphasis on capacity and services," stresses Marr. "The garbage has got to be collected."

Meanwhile, the number of Iraqi civilians killed per month has skyrocketed. In May, 2003, it was 25. Two years later, the figure had reached 600, according to Brookings. And the number of insurgent attacks has jumped from an average of 10 a day in May, 2003, to 70 a day last month, Brookings says. Marr is dubious Baghdad can provide answers. "I don't think they're going to be able to turn it around, period," Marr declares.

"It's going to be a long, hard slog," Marr says. Talk of a pullout starting in 2006 may be just that -- talk. Don't expect GIs to start coming home in large numbers until electric service is dependable.

For that to happen, there has to be a well-oiled, functioning government, either in Baghdad or the provinces. Don't hold your breath.