MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, BUSH WON'T RECOVER

Since Bush began his 2nd term, he's had a number of setbacks. The first was Bernie Kerik but that could be ignored as a minor embarrassment if it weren't for the other losses. The first was the Schiavo fiasco. A large majority of the American public disagreed with the decisions Bush, DeLay and Frist made. The second loss was private accounts for Social Security. Despite all the fake town hall meetings across the country, a solid 65% do not approve of the Bush approach. The third loss seems to be the John Bolton nomination. Bush may make a recess appointment but it will be a defeat nonetheless because Bush has insisted on an up or down vote.

Bush has had two legislative defeats. In Congress, the House has defied Bush's opposition to stem cell research and the Senate will do the same. Here, Bush faces a hard choice. If he does veto the bill as he has promised, he will alienate about 70% of the American public. If he doesn't veto it, he will lose support among the religious fundamentalists, a very important part of his base. In addition, the House voted to eliminate a provision of the Patriot Act that Bush wanted. If this passes the Senate, Bush has threatened a veto.

A solid majority (57%-59%) of Americans are now against the war in Iraq and, more disturbingly for Bush, many are coming to doubt how effective he has been in the war on terror.

Adding this all up, I conclude that Bush is now a lame duck who is hurting his party.