Despite the behavior of the market during the last Presidential election, over longer periods of time, the stock market has done significantly better under Democratic administrations.
The accompanying chart shows stock returns under each occupant of the White House since the beginning of Harry Truman's second term. I have calculated the return from the end of the November election, since stocks will react to the policies of the incoming administration when it is elected, not when it takes office.
| President | Party | Date | Months in Office | Annualized Stock Return |
| Truman | D | 11/48-10/52 | 48 | 18.28% |
| Eisenhower | R | 11/52-10/60 | 96 | 14.96% |
| Kennedy | D | 11/60-10/63 | 36 | 15.15% |
| Johnson | D | 11/63-10/68 | 60 | 10.39% |
| Nixon | R | 11/68-7/74 | 69 | -1.32% |
| Ford | R | 8/74-10/76 | 27 | 17.21% |
| Carter | D | 11/76-10/80 | 48 | 11.04% |
| Reagan | R | 11/80-10/88 | 96 | 15.18% |
| Bush | R | 11/88-10/92 | 48 | 14.44% |
| Clinton | D | 11/92-10/00 | 96 | 19% |
| Bush, G.W. | R | 11/00-2/06 | 63 | -0.92% |
| Average from 1948 to Feb. 2006 | Democrat | 42.8% | 15.26% | |
| Republican | 57.2% | 9.53% | ||
| Overall | 100% | 11.95% | ||
The table tells the story. Since 1948, Republican Administrations have controlled the White House 57.2 percent of the time. But during the period that the GOP was in office, stock returns have averaged only 9.53 percent per year, while under Democratic administrations, stocks returned 15.25 percent per year, more than five percentage points higher.
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1 comment:
Good numbers.I'd like to see the Dow Jones over that time. I know Dems do better there also.
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