GLOBAL WARMING HITS HOME

Study predicts dust-bowl Southwest
By Tony Davis and Dan Sorenson
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 04.06.2007

Dust-bowl conditions of the 1930s could become the norm in the Southwest by the end of this century, or sooner, because global warming will bring drier weather, a new national study said Thursday.

More air pollution in the cities, fewer saguaros in the desert, more tree die-offs in the mountains and, above all, up to 25 percent less water for people and wildlife in Arizona will be likely results of drier weather, various local experts said in reaction to the report.

By about 2050, this region will see a perpetual drought similar to what struck the Great Plains in the 1930s and the West in the 1950s, said the report from scientists from Columbia University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Of 19 models studied, all but one agreed that warming temperatures will make the Southwest drier. That is "an unprecedented level of agreement" among the various computer models, said Julia Cole, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences and geosciences at the University of Arizona.