FINGARING THE FIASCO

Yesterday, Dr. Thomas Fingar, the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence testified before the House Armed Services Committee. In his prepared testimony (pdf) he had this to say about Iraq:

The multiparty government of Nuri al-Maliki continues halting efforts to bridge the divisions and restore commitment to a unified country, and it has made limited progress on key legislation, most notably in reaching some compromises on draft hydrocarbon legislation.

[snip]

Despite these positive developments, communal violence and scant common ground between Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds continues to polarize politics.


Prime Minister Maliki’s national reconciliation agenda is still only at its initial stages. As the Intelligence Community (IC) noted in the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) published in January, even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation.

The religious Shia foundation of Maliki’s government—the Unified Iraqi Alliance—does not present a unified front. It is split over the creation of federal regions, and the two largest factions—loyal to the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council and Muqtada al-Sadr respectively—are bitter rivals. One Shia party, the Fadila Party, has left the coalition.

Provision of essential public services remains inadequate; oil output is below pre-war levels; hours of electrical power available have declined and remain far below demand; and inflationary pressures have grown since last year.

Let's recall that our own military has been telling us for years (2004 and 2005) that there is no purely military solution to Iraq, that the only real solution will be a political one reached by the Iraqis. This year, both Gen. Petraeus and Gen. Lute have re-iterated the exact same point.