OPERATION DESERT FOX

I just started reading FIASCO: The American Military Adventure in Iraq by Thomas E. Ricks, a WaPo reporter. His account (pp. 19-21) of Clinton's bombing of Iraq in 1998 contains a few surprises. For one, it almost toppled Saddam's regime. Saddam was so worried that he might be toppled that he started a purge and re-organized his command and control structures. Although this was not public knowledge, many in the U.S. government, including Gen. Anthony Zinni, then head of CENTCOM, did know. Zinni relates that Arab allies of the U.S. also had similar information and were worried about what would happen if Saddam fell. They wanted to know if the U.S. had a plan for the aftermath and were also worried that Iran would become a threat to their own regimes. (Bruce Reidel reports that Al Qaeda is also worried that Iran will come to dominate the region.)

In July, 1999, Zinni had the consulting firm Booz Allen do a war-game on what the aftermath would look like and the firm found many of the same problems we've run into. I don't know where this report is but presumably it's at CENTCOM and was available to Tommy Franks, Zinni's successor.

Ricks also reports what David Kay, the weapons inspector, and Col. Alan King, the chief civil affairs officer of the 3rd Infantry Division, came to realize about Operation Desert Fox: it was very effective. Kay stated that Saddam's weapons programs "withered away" after the strikes and King found out "that our reason for invading pretty much went away in 1998."