A GOOD ADDITION TO RUDE PUNDIT'S LIST

Over 2 years ago, the Rude Pundit wrote a list of turning points that ended up not being turning points. Today I stumbled across this post on Foreign Policy that updates it:

Lt. Gen. Jay Garner arrives in Baghdad
Date: April 21, 2003
U.S. military fatalities to date: 131
Unwarranted optimism: “We will be here as long as it takes. We will leave fairly rapidly.” —Lt. Gen. Jay Garner

President Bush appears beneath “Mission Accomplished” banner
Date: May 1, 2003
U.S. military fatalities to date: 140
Unwarranted optimism: “Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed.” —U.S. President George W. Bush

L. Paul Bremer III takes over from Jay Garner
Date: May 11, 2003
U.S. military fatalities to date: 148
Unwarranted optimism: “The coalition provisional authority, led by Ambassador Bremer, has a comprehensive strategy to move Iraq toward a future that is secure and prosperous.” —George W. Bush

Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) announces Iraqi Governing Council
Date: July 13, 2003
U.S. military fatalities to date: 225
Unwarranted optimism: “The establishment of the Iraqi Governing Council is an important step forward in the ongoing transition from ruthless dictatorship to a free and democratic Iraq with Iraqis determining their own future. We look forward to working with the Council as it moves toward a democratic and prosperous Iraq, at peace with its neighbors.” —George W. Bush

U.S. forces kill Uday and Qusay Hussein
Date: July 22, 2003
U.S. military fatalities to date: 238
Unwarranted optimism: “While there is still much work to do in Iraq, the Iraqi people can see progress each day toward a better and more prosperous future for their country.” —White House statement

U.S. forces capture Saddam Hussein
Date: December 13, 2003
U.S. military fatalities to date: 463
Unwarranted optimism: “Iraq’s future, your future, has never been more full of hope. The tyrant is a prisoner. The economy is moving forward. You have before you the prospect of a sovereign government in a few months.” —L. Paul Bremer III, head of the CPA

Iraqi Governing Council completes Transitional Administrative Law
Date: March 8, 2004
U.S. military fatalities to date: 557
Unwarranted optimism: “The adoption of this law marks a historic milestone in the Iraqi people’s long journey from tyranny and violence to liberty and peace. While difficult work remains to establish democracy in Iraq, today’s signing is a critical step in that direction.” —George W. Bush

U.S. transfers sovereignty to Iraqi interim government
Date: June 28, 2004
U.S. military fatalities to date: 858
Unwarranted optimism: “Let freedom reign!” —George W. Bush, writing on a napkin

Iraq holds elections for Transitional National Assembly
Date: January 30, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 1,438
Unwarranted optimism: “Across Iraq today, men and women have taken rightful control of their country’s destiny, and they have chosen a future of freedom and peace.” —George W. Bush

Ibrahim al-Jaafari forms new Iraqi government
Date: April 28, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 1,580
Unwarranted optimism: “The United States is confident that the new government will meet these challenges in the months ahead, and America will stand by Iraq, its leaders, and the Iraqi people as they continue their work to establish a stable, peaceful, and democratic Iraq.” —George W. Bush

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney declares insurgency in “last throes”
Date: May 30, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 1,665
Unwarranted optimism: “The level of activity that we see today from a military standpoint, I think, will clearly decline. I think they’re in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency.” —Dick Cheney

Cindy Sheehan camps out in Crawford, Texas
Date: August 6, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 1,834
Unwarranted optimism: “The vigils [organized by MoveOn.org in support of Sheehan] were something we hadn’t seen in quite some time. It was a turning point, I think.” —Todd Gitlin, professor of journalism and sociology at Columbia University

Iraqis ratify new constitution
Date: October 15, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 1,977
Unwarranted optimism: “Just 30 months removed from the rule of a dictator, and nine months after they first elected their own leaders, the Iraqi people are resolving tough issues through an inclusive political process. And this process is isolating the extremists who wish to derail democracy through violence and murder.” —George W. Bush

U.S. Rep. John Murtha calls for U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq
Date: November 17, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,083
Unwarranted optimism: “I believe before the Iraqi elections, scheduled for mid-December, the Iraqi people and the emerging government must be put on notice that the United States will immediately redeploy. All of Iraq must know that Iraq is free. Free from United States occupation. I believe this will send a signal to the Sunnis to join the political process for the good of a ‘free’ Iraq.” —Rep. John Murtha

White House releases “National Strategy for Victory in Iraq”
Date: November 30, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,113
Unwarranted optimism: “As we make progress toward victory, Iraqis will take more responsibility for their security, and fewer U.S. forces will be needed to complete the mission.” —George W. Bush

Iraqis elect new Iraqi Assembly
Date: December 15, 2005
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,155
Unwarranted optimism: “The last two weeks have been critically important and I believe may be seen as a turning point in the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism.” —U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman

Nuri al-Maliki sworn in as new Iraqi prime minister
Date: May 20, 2006
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,455
Unwarranted optimism: “We believe this is a turning point for the Iraqi citizens, and it’s a new chapter in our partnership.” —George W. Bush

The choice of Maliki is “a good step in the right direction. He’s an Iraqi patriot. He’s a strong leader.” —U.S. Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad

“[O]ur security forces will be capable of taking over the security portfolio in all Iraqi provinces within one year and a half.” —Nuri al-Maliki

U.S. forces kill Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
Date: June 7, 2006
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,490
Unwarranted optimism: “Zarqawi’s death is a severe blow to al Qaeda. It’s a victory in the global war on terror, and it is an opportunity for Iraq’s new government to turn the tide of this struggle.” —George W. Bush

Iraqi national security advisor calls for U.S. troop drawdown
Date: June 20, 2006
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,510
Unwarranted optimism: “We envisage the U.S. troop presence by year’s end to be under 100,000, with most of the remaining troops to return home by the end of 2007.” —Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq’s national security advisor

Iraq “drifting sideways,” U.S. Sen. John Warner warns
Date: October 6, 2006
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,740
Unwarranted optimism: “Warner’s statement is an important, important statement and, I hope, a turning point.” —U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden

Iraq Study Group publishes report
Date: December 6, 2006
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,925
Unwarranted optimism: “Even if its proposals don’t succeed, Baker-Hamilton can still accomplish its purpose, to ‘enable the United States to begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly.’” —David Ignatius, Washington Post columnist

Robert Gates replaces Donald Rumsfeld as U.S. secretary of defense
Date: December 18, 2006
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,953
Unwarranted optimism: “[T]he pragmatists have won the battle for the president’s attention. Now let’s see how the president responds, and what, together with the Democrats, they can do about Iraq.” —Howard Fineman, chief political correspondent at Newsweek

Iraqi government hangs Saddam Hussein
Date: December 30, 2006
U.S. military fatalities to date: 2,999
Unwarranted optimism: “Bringing Saddam Hussein to justice will not end the violence in Iraq, but it is an important milestone on Iraq’s course to becoming a democracy that can govern, sustain, and defend itself, and be an ally in the War on Terror.” —George W. Bush

110th Congress convenes
Date: January 4, 2007
U.S. military fatalities to date: 3,005
Unwarranted optimism: “Newly empowered Democrats plan to start the next congressional session with a head-on challenge to President Bush’s Iraq war policy, seeking to push the Bush administration to start troop withdrawals by mid-2007, party leaders said yesterday.” —Rick Klein of the Boston Globe

President Bush announces troop “surge” strategy for Iraq
Date: January 10, 2007
U.S. military fatalities to date: 3,016
Unwarranted optimism: “This new strategy will not yield an immediate end to suicide bombings, assassinations, or IED [improvised explosive device] attacks. … Yet over time, we can expect to see Iraqi troops chasing down murderers, fewer brazen acts of terror, and growing trust and cooperation from Baghdad’s residents. When this happens, daily life will improve, Iraqis will gain confidence in their leaders, and the government will have the breathing space it needs to make progress in other critical areas. Most of Iraq’s Sunni and Shia want to live together in peace—and reducing the violence in Baghdad will help make reconciliation possible.” —George W. Bush

Gen. David Petraeus takes command in Iraq; the “surge” begins
Date: February 10, 2007
U.S. military fatalities to date: 3,124
Unwarranted optimism: “People want to live in peace; they want to grow up in a peaceful environment. And the decision I made is going to help the Iraqi government do that.” —George W. Bush

U.S. House passes resolution condemning “surge” in Iraq
Date: February 16, 2007
U.S. military fatalities to date: 3,135
Unwarranted optimism: “The passage of this legislation will signal a change in direction in Iraq that will end the fighting and bring our troops home safely and soon.” —U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar calls for troop reductions in Iraq
Date: June 25, 2007
U.S. military fatalities to date: 3,568
Unwarranted optimism: “When we finally end this war—and the history books are written—I believe that Senator Lugar’s words yesterday could be remembered as a turning point.” —U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, Senate majority leader

New York Times calls for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq
Date: July 8, 2007
U.S. military fatalities to date: 3,608
Unwarranted optimism: “It is time for the United States to leave Iraq, without any more delay than the Pentagon needs to organize an orderly exit.” —New York Times editorial

Sen. John Warner calls on President Bush to withdraw some troops
Date: Aug. 23, 2007
U.S. military fatalities to date: 3,727
Unwarranted optimism? “John Warner is the single most influential Republican voice on Capitol Hill. … This is going to have a major impact, Katie.” —Bob Schieffer, CBS News

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