Greg Sargent at TalkingPointsMemo's The Horse's Mouth finds that Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also went to Iraq with O'Hanlon and Pollack and has a different analysis. Cordesman states that there is a tenuous case for patience but that will require a change in plans:
The US also now has a country team in Iraq that is far more capable than in the past, and which may be able to develop and implement the kind of cohesive plans for US action in Iraq that have been weak or lacking to date. If that team can come forward with solid plans for an integrated approach to a sustained US effort to deal with Iraq’s plans and risks, there would be a far stronger and more bipartisan case for strategic patience.
I particularly liked Cordesman's realization that the success so far is not due to the Surge but to the Sunnis in Anbar Province turning against Al Qaeda. Contrary to some wingnut gasbags, this began before the Surge was even announced. Here's Cordesman:
The new US approach to counterinsurgency warfare is making a difference, but it still seems likely from a visit to the scene that the original strategy President Bush announced in January would have failed if it had not been for the Sunni tribal awakening.
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