Wednesday, August 08, 2007

THE U.S. COST OF CUTTING GREENHOUSE GASES

Specifically, the cost of implementing S. 280 was analyzed by the Energy Information Administration and it's not that bad. Over a 21 year period, it won't cost much more than the Fiasco in Iraq:

S. 280 increases the cost of using energy, which reduces real economic output, reduces purchasing power, and lowers aggregate demand for goods and services. The result is that projected real Gross Domestic Produce (GDP) falls relative to the reference case. The impacts generally increase over time, as the cap-and-trade program requires larger changes in the energy system. Relative to the reference case, real GDP in 2030 is between 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent lower in 2030 in the main S. 280 policy cases. Impacts on real consumption, a more direct indicator of the economic welfare of American consumers, are similar, averaging 0.4 percent lower in the main S.280 policy cases.

Total discounted GDP over the 2009 to 2030 time period is $533 billion (-0.22 percent) lower in the S280 Core case and ranges from $471 billion (-0.19 percent) lower in the Fixed 30 Percent Offsets case to $572 billion (-0.23 percent) lower in the No International case.

The combined value of the auctioned and distributed allowances, or allowance revenue, tends to grow over time as the allowance price rises. By 2029, the total revenue in the S280 Core case rises to $287 billion, before falling to $233 billion in 2030 when the number of allowances issued drops. Economic impacts are sensitive to the specific assumptions made regarding the recycling of allowance revenues.

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