BACK TO THE NUMBERS GAME

I noted earlier that we may have captured or killed 2 out 3 Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) members and today the WaPo reports that a few generals are thinking of declaring victory against AQI:

Al-Qaeda In Iraq Reported Crippled
Many Officials, However, Warn Of Its Resilience
By Thomas E. Ricks and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 15, 2007; Page A01

Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, head of the Joint Special Operations Command's operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said. But Adm. William J. Fallon, the chief of U.S. Central Command, which oversees Iraq and the rest of the Middle East, is urging restraint, the official said. The military intelligence official, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity about Iraq assessments and strategy.

Senior U.S. commanders on the ground, including Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. forces in Iraq, have long complained that Central Command, along with the CIA, is too negative in its analyses. On this issue, however, Petraeus agrees with Fallon, the military intelligence official said.

The WaPo article brings up a good political point: If we declare that AQI has been defeated, then we have no reason to keep tens of thousands of troops in Iraq.