THE 2007 NIE ON IRAN

This report throws a LOT of cold water on the neo-cons' delusion that Iran is an imminent threat to Western Civilization. This is at the top of the Key Judgments:

A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program¹; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.

¹For the purposes of this Estimate, by “nuclear weapons program” we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work; we do not mean Iran’s declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment.

Now, let's recall where the main international pressure came from. If you're thinking the U.S., you would be WRONG!

The New York Times
June 30, 2003 Monday
Late Edition - Final
British Minister Presses Iran To Allow Nuclear Inspections
BYLINE: By NAZILA FATHI
SECTION: Section A; Column 5; Foreign Desk; Pg. 12
LENGTH: 727 words

DATELINE: TEHRAN, June 29

Britain's foreign secretary, Jack Straw, urged Iran today to sign "quickly and unconditionally" an additional protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that would lead to more aggressive United Nations inspections of its nuclear sites.

Speaking at a news conference at the outset of his fourth visit to Iran in less than two years, Mr. Straw said Iran's refusal to sign the protocol allowing surprise inspections was undermining international confidence and discouraging the lifting of trade sanctions.

"With my colleagues in Germany and in France we want to have closer trade cooperation with Iran, but we have to say that progress in trade cooperation depends on progress in issues of human rights and weapons of mass destruction," he said.

"If there is no signature, then confidence will not be improved and the international community will be profoundly reluctant to lift the sanctions," he added.

There has been a LOT of commentary about this report and the in Wingnut World, all the credit goes to the Bush Fiasco in Iraq. Consider War Whore Victor Davis Hanson:

After all, what critic would wish now to grant that one result of the 2003 war-aside from the real chance that Iraq can stabilize and function under the only consensual government in the region-might have been the elimination for some time of two growing and potentially nuclear threats to American security, quite apart from Saddam Hussein?

Here we see that almost any event can be turned into a GOP victory, including the exposure of the criminal Bush regime's hype about Iran and not surprisingly, wingnut bloggers like the Drunken Captain and InstaWhore take the same line as Hanson.