THE FED THINKS WE'RE IN A RECESSION

(h/t Kevin Drum)

At least the Fed's staff thinks so:

In the forecast prepared for this meeting, the staff substantially revised down its projection for the pace of real GDP throughout 2008....The staff projection showed a contraction of real GDP in the first half of 2008 followed by a slow rise in the second half. The recently enacted fiscal stimulus package was expected to boost real GDP in the second half of 2008, but that effect was projected to unwind in 2009.