GOOD ELECTORAL NEWS

First, it looks like Florida is a LOT bluer now that it was 4 or 8 years ago.

Note to Sen. Obama: Wake up and smell the change in Florida
By Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor
In print: Saturday, May 17, 2008
St. Petersburg Times

(excerpts)

- In the 37 Florida counties with at least 50,000 voters — more than 90 percent of the electorate — Democrats have gained ground among registered voters in 30, while Republicans lost ground in 26.

- Look at the 22 counties where Al Gore received 45 percent to 55 percent of the vote in 2000. Since that virtually tied election, the Democrats' net registration advantage has grown by more than 100,000.

- A few weeks ago, Democrats overtook Republicans in voter registration among Hispanics, a crucial voter group that could account for 15 percent of the Florida vote in November.

Second, the rural voters are no longer a lock for the GOP.

Poll: Rural Voters Not Reliably Republican in 2008
by Howard Berkes
Weekend Edition Sunday, May 18, 2008

In head-to-head match-ups, the rural voters surveyed split evenly between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican McCain. Each garnered 46 percent of the rural vote in the poll.

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama didn't fare as well, trailing McCain by nine points among the rural voters surveyed. McCain is favored by 50 percent of those polled; Obama gets 41 percent.

...a single-digit lead over Obama, who many consider to be the likely Democratic nominee, is not what Republicans expect or need from the voters in rural counties — which have been the reddest regions on the political map in the last decade.

President Bush won rural counties by 16 percentage points in the 2000 election and 19 points in 2004. Those margins helped overcome Democratic dominance of urban areas and tighter contests in suburbs.