WHY THOSE 12-15 POINT POLLS WERE WRONG

Obama doesn't have the HUGE lead that 2 different polls found because of sampling errors.

The Wild Differences in The Polls, Explained
By Andrew Satter, CQ Staff
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
June 27, 2008 – 12:17 a.m.

...Richard Morin, a senior editor at the Pew Research Center. In an interview with CQ Politics, he said the discrepancy is probably a result of the Newsweek and L.A. Times/Bloomberg polls over-representing Democrats.

“When I look at those results, I know something is going on,” said Morin.

“The first place that I look when I see these discrepancies, I look for the percentage of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in the sample. We know that the best predictor of how someone is going to vote is their party ID.

“Both the L.A. Times/Bloomberg and the Newsweek polls have (too) large percentage of Democrats and a (too) small percentage of Republicans.”