PRETTY GOOD NEWS ABOUT SOCIAL SECURITY

The last time I looked into the fiscal projections, without increases in revenue, SS would have to reduce benefits starting in 2041. An August 2008 report by the Congressional Budget Office now puts that date at 2049 and even then, SS will be able to pay out 84% of currently promised benefits. (h/ts Atrios & Dean Baker)

In 2049—CBO’s projected date for the trust funds’ exhaustion—revenues will equal only 84 percent of scheduled outlays. Thus, payable benefits will be 16 percent lower than scheduled benefits. Beginning in about 2070, the gap between scheduled and payable benefits will begin to grow, and by 2082, CBO projects, payable benefits will be 19 percent less than scheduled benefits.

The CBO's projection is somewhat more optimistic than the SS Trustee's projection in part because the CBO assumes that Fredo's tax cuts will lapse.