THE PUMA MYTH

Wingnuts have been pushing the meme that former Hilary supporters will not vote for Obama and the common name for these voters is "PUMA" - Party Unity My Ass. As we head into the last 2 weeks, Nate Silver found that there will be no PUMA effect.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Sorry, Jim, the PUMAs are Dead

Over at the Campaign Spot, Jim Geraghty wonders how the new ABC/Washington Post poll could have the temerity to suggest that Barack Obama is winning more support among Democrats than John McCain is among Republicans:

The ABC/WashPost poll in late September found 86 percent of Republicans for McCain, 88 percent of Democrats for Obama. PUMAs don't exist anymore? Colin Powell and Christopher Buckley are leading the exodus of Republicans for Obama? I suppose it's possible, but I have my doubts.

I suppose I have my doubts too, except that this finding is now reflected in any number of polls. In fact, six of the eight trackers that published today included the support that each candidate is winning within his respective party. Let's take a quick look at those figures:

Support within own party:
Pollster             DEMS       GOP
Rasmussen            86         87
IBD-TIPP             88         83
Research 2000        87         89
ABC/Post             91         84
Zogby                87         84
Battleground         89         85

AVERAGE              88.0       85.3

2004 Exit Poll       89         93
2000 Exit Poll       86         91

Among Democrats, Barack Obama is now winning 88 percent support, comparable to John Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000. And there are a couple of points' worth of undecideds left in there, so it's possible that Obama could scrape up against the 90 percent number on election day.

By contrast, John McCain is winning the support of just 85.3 percent of Republicans, well down from Bush's 93 percent in 2004 and 91 percent in 2000. There are some undecideds in there as well, so his numbers should improve some, but McCain is likely to underperform Bush by several points.