Sunday, November 08, 2009

THE MEDIA WINGERS ARE LOUSY AT ELECTION PREDICTIONS

(h/t Frank Rich)

On election day last November, I recall the radio gasbags urging the rubes to go vote because a GOP victory was in sight. They were terribly wrong then and haven't gotten much better.

Sean Hannity was pushing the meme that extremist Doug Hoffman was going win big in NY-231:
SEAN HANNITY, HOST: All right, it is election eve all across the country, and here in New York conservatives are preparing to take back the Republican Party. Now all eyes are focused on New York's 23rd District with the departure of liberal Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, has opened the door for conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman to ride a tidal wave of support, all the way to Washington, D.C.

Scozzafava's exit now leaves Hoffman to face Democrat Bill Owens, and Scozzafava was so liberal that she quickly endorsed the Democrat Owens and is reportedly making robocalls on his behalf.

But that is not stopping Hoffman. After racking up endorsements from former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, and Fred and Jeri Thompson and many others, the latest Siena polls shows him leading Owens by five points ahead of tomorrow's election.

William "The Bloody" Kristol also thought Hoffman was going to win2:
BILL KRISTOL, EDITOR, "THE WEEKLY STANDARD": Well, this is a district that President Obama, candidate Obama carried by five points last year, exactly a year ago.

People forget this is a traditional Republican district. It has been going Democratic. Obama carried it. That's why they made John McHugh the incumbent secretary of the army.

This was an incredibly clever move by Rahm Emanuel to pluck a popular incumbent Republican out of the House and give him enough of an important job in the executive branch, and win this special election and get an extra Democratic Congressman.

Then we have the chaos of the Republican side, Scozzafava has to pull out. She then endorsed the Democrat. The real Republican, Hoffman, is running on the conservative line. And the absentee ballots that have already been cast for Scozzafava won't be counted for Hoffman. Nonetheless, Hoffman is likely to win.

It is really amazing. This is plus five Obama district, chaos on the Republican side, a respectable Democratic nominee, and the Democrat is going to lose, probably.

1Fox News Network
November 2, 2009 Monday
SHOW: FOX HANNITY 9:00 PM EST
Conservatives Taking the GOP; Interview with Dick Morris
BYLINE: Sean Hannity
GUESTS: Jeri Thompson, Doug Hoffman, Fred Thompson, Dick Morris
SECTION: NEWS; Domestic
LENGTH: 3971 words


2Fox News Network
November 2, 2009 Monday
SHOW: FOX SPECIAL REPORT WITH BRET BAIER 6:40 PM EST
Fox News All-Stars
BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer, Juan Williams, Bill Kristol, Bret Baier
SECTION: NEWS; Domestic
LENGTH: 2534 words

No comments: