RYAN'S MAGICAL PREDICTIONS

The CBO's analysis of Rep. Paul Ryan's budget outline is limited by the lack of specifics in the outline but there are several magical assumptions made which together indicate that this is not a serious plan, no matter what Charles Krauthammer thinks.

First, Ryan's prediction that there would be a substantial decline in other Federal spending is not justified (CBO, p.19):

Furthermore, the proposal specifies a path for all other spending (excluding interest and Social Security) that would cause such spending to decline sharply as a share of GDP—from 12 percent in 2010 to 6 percent in 2022 and 3½ percent by 2050. For comparison, spending in this category has exceeded 8 percent of GDP in every year since World War II. The proposal does not specify the changes to government programs that might be made in order to produce that path.

...the proposal does not specify the changes to government programs that might be made in order to produce that path. (p. 2)

Second, the revenue growth Ryan predicts is also unjustified (CBO, p. 11):

The path for revenues as a percentage of GDP was specified by Chairman Ryan’s staff. The path rises steadily from about 15 percent of GDP in 2010 to 19 percent in 2028 and remains at that level thereafter. There were no specifications of particular revenue provisions that would generate that path.