FURTHER RESULTS FROM A PUNDIT STUDY

(h/t Jim Romanesko)

A political science class of Prof. P. Gary Wyckoff at Hamilton College did a study of the accuracy of predictions of famous and not so famous prognosticators and found, as I would expect, that the most accurate are liberals.

I found this more interesting  in the literature review portion, in part because I had noted the study before::

While initially investigating whether higher levels of education and experience correspond to higher predictive accuracy, Tetlock ultimately concluded that cognitive style was the most important influence on prediction accuracy. Using the framework derived from Isaiah Berlin’s essay The Hedgehog and the Fox that “hedgehogs know one big thing; foxes know many things, (Berlin, 3)” Tetlock separated experts into two groups with competing cognitive approaches to prediction and found “the hedgehog-fox dimension did what none of the other traits did: distinguish more accurate forecasters from less accurate ones in both economics and politics” (Begley,45).

According to Tetlock, there are clear differences between hedgehogs and foxes. Hedgehogs “know one big thing” and “apply that one thing everywhere,” express “supreme confidence in their forecasts, dismiss opposing views and are drawn to top-down arguments deduced from that Big Idea”; they “seek certainty and closure, dismiss information that undercuts their preconceptions and embrace evidence that reinforces them” (Begley, 45). Foxes “consider competing views, make bottom-up inductive arguments from an array of facts, doubt the power of Big Ideas” and “are cognitively flexible, modest and open to self-criticism” (Begley, 45). Ultimately, “what experts think matters far less than how they think: their cognitive style” (Begley, 45). Tetlock found that foxes outperform hedgehogs in prediction accuracy in virtually all fields, across all time periods, and across the various levels of expertise.

In our current political environment, I'd say that many if not most prominent conservatives were Hedgehogs and Mark Levin may be model for all of them because he views conservatism as an all-embracing philosophy, not limited to questions of mere politics.

Here are the relevant sources used by the Hamilton study:

Begley, Sharon. “Why Pundits Get Things Wrong.” Newsweek. February 23, 2009. Volume 153 Issue 8.P 45.


Tetlock, Philip. Expert Political Judgment: How good is it? How can we know?. Princeton University
Press, 2009.