RUSSELL ON HISTORICAL DETERMINISM

This is a nice smack down of Marx, Spengler, Toynbee and others who thought they had discovered the master pattern of human social development:

History can be viewed in many ways, and many general formulae can be invented which cover enough of the ground to seem adequate if the facts are carefully selected. I suggest, without undue solemnity, the following alternative theory of the causation of the industrial revolution: industrialism is due to modem science, modem science is due to Galileo, Galileo is due to Copernicus, Copernicus is due to the Renaissance, the Renaissance is due to the fall of Constantinople, the fall of Constantinople is due to the migration of the Turks, the migration of the Turks is due to the desiccation of Central Asia. Therefore the fundamental study in searching for historical causes is hydrography.

SOURCE:Freedom and organization, 1814-1914, by Bertrand Russell; London, G. Allen & Unwin ltd. [1945]; p. 230