Thursday, November 01, 2012


(h/t Mark Thoma)

The NY Times discusses a new paper, so far unpublished, that provides evidence that asking people about who they expect to win a Presidential election is a better predictor of the outcome than asking them who they will vote for.

Here's why this is good news:
In the last three weeks, polls — including by ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, Politico/George Washington University and Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS — have consistently found that more Americans expect President Obama to win than expect Mr. Romney to win. 

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