I CAN'T FIND THE 2003 REFERENCE...

but I do recall one national security expert stating that the real threat from Al Qaeda (Qaida) was its transformation from an extremist group into an ideology which could attract adherents all over the world.  In 2005, even the Bush Administration seemed aware of this possibility.

UPDATE: Here's an article from 2003 by Reuters that mentions Al Qaeda as an ideology which can spread around the world:

Al Qaeda brand of terror wins Asian recruits
Saturday, August 9, 2003, 00:00 by
Reuters

Jemaah Islamiah has favoured such targets since top operatives changed strategy in early 2002. The group is seen as the Asian link to al Qaeda because members fought in Afghanistan and because its operations chief, elusive Indonesian Hambali, is believed to sit on al Qaeda's military committee.

"But al Qaeda may no longer have much contact with its Asian franchise, relying instead on the momentum of its radical ideas.

"You have to beware of seeing this as al Qaeda," said Mr Huxley. "I don't think you should see Jemaah Islamiah as simply a branch office, because there are local factors at work.

"Jemaah Islamiah operates as an autonomous organisation which may have some ideological sympathies with al Qaeda, may have had funding links, but has its own organisational structure."