A SECOND (FOURTH) SURGE???

Hearst Newspapers reports that an examination of Pentagon deployment orders shows that the Administration could have as many as 200,000 troops in Iraq by the end of the year.


A new, silent surge in Iraq
Increased deployments, extended tours
could lead to more than 200,000 troops
in the country by year's end

By STEWART M. POWELL,
Washington bureau
First published: Tuesday, May 22, 2007

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is quietly on track to nearly double the number of combat troops in Iraq this year, an analysis of Pentagon deployment orders showed Monday.

The second "surge" of troops to Iraq is being executed by deploying more combat brigades to the country, plus extending tours of duty for troops already there.

When additional support troops are included in this second troop "surge," the total number of U.S. troops in Iraq could increase from 162,000 now to more than 200,000 -- a record high number -- by the end of the year.

Asked to comment on the findings, retired Army Maj. Gen. William Nash, the U.S. commander who led NATO troops into Bosnia in late 1995, said: "It doesn't surprise me that they're not talking about it. I think they would be very happy not to have any more attention paid to this."

The first surge was prominently proclaimed by Bush in a nationally televised address on Jan. 10 when he ordered five additional combat brigades to join 15 brigades already in Iraq.

The build-up was designed to give commanders the 20 combat brigades that Pentagon planners said were needed to provide security in Baghdad and western Anbar province.

Since then, the Pentagon has extended combat tours for units in Iraq from 12 months to 15 months and announced the deployment of additional brigades.

Taken together, the steps could put elements of as many as 28 combat brigades in Iraq by Christmas, according to an analysis of deployment orders by Hearst Newspapers.

The actions could boost the number of combat troops from 52,500 in early January to as many as 98,000 by the end of this year, if the Pentagon overlaps arriving and departing combat brigades.

Lawrence Korb, an assistant defense secretary for manpower during the Reagan administration, said the Pentagon deployment schedule enables the Bush administration to achieve quick increases in combat forces in the future by delaying units' scheduled departures from Iraq and overlapping them with arriving replacement forces.