Economist fears 'nasty' recession is headed our way
1/11/2008 12:38 PM
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The USA will likely sink into recession in 2008, and it could be "nasty" if policymakers don't act swiftly, according to a prominent economist.
"Unfortunately, I think that there is a better-than-even chance that we are headed into a recession in 2008," Martin Feldstein, an economics professor at Harvard University and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), told USA TODAY Tuesday.
Here's the part that was new to me:
While recessions are often described as two consecutive quarters of decline in economic output, that's not the official definition.
Instead, the panel looks at a series of economic data, including gross domestic product, income, employment, industrial production and retail sales. There is no formal model. The economists make their judgments based on subjective discussion of the data.
If the wingnuts find out that the NBER's judgment is subjective, I'm willing to bet they'll claim "liberal bias."
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