HOW BAD ARE EXTENDED UI BENEFITS?

Arthur Delaney at HuffPo notes that the wingnut fuss about extended benefits discouraging people from looking for and getting work has little empirical support. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank in San Francisco found only a tiny effect:

Our analyses suggest that extended UI benefits account for about 0.4 percentage point of the nearly 6 percentage point increase in the national unemployment rate over the past few years. It is not surprising that the disincentive effects of UI would loom small in the midst of the most severe labor market downturn since the Great Depression.

Another report by the majority (Dem) staff of the Joint Economic Committee found the experts in this area did not think the extensions had a significant impact on unemployment:

Dr. Lawrence Katz, said that “the most compelling research shows only modest impacts of UI extensions on the search effort and duration of unemployment of unemployment insurance recipients."

Dr. Till von Wachter, in testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, also shared Katz’s opinion.6 “It is likely thatin severe recessions, the benefit of extended UI outweighs the costs,” argues von Wachter.

Another prominent economist who has studied unemployment insurance and other social insurance programs, Dr. Raj Chetty, has reached similar conclusions.

ONLY IN ROMNEY WORLD

UPDATE: Fred Kaplan at Salon eviscerates Mittens

I didn't bother to read Mitten's attack on the new START treaty, so I missed this howler:

Unlike past treaty restrictions, ICBMs are not prohibited from bombers.

(h/t Jason Sigger at Crooks & Liars)

GOOD NEWS - MORE WINGNUT FOOD FIGHTS

Sarah Palin tries to prevent the Bagger's lust for budget-cutting from touching the Defense Dept. and Glenn Beck gets attacked by a Fundie because he's a Mormon.

Let's hope these tiny cracks turn into huge crevasses.

WHAT "LIBERAL MEDIA"???

Lloyd Grove seems to think that it only takes two conservatives, in this case Mort Zuckermann and Niall Ferguson, to allow him to state that the intellectuals are turning against Pres. Obama and Ruth Marcus at the WaPo felt compelled to warn us that "soaking the rich," who may see an increase in the top marginal rate of 4%, won't solve all our fiscal problems, as if the latter were a popular belief.

THE NEO-CONS GET ANOTHER SCALP

From Mediate:

CNN’s Senior Editor of Mideast Affairs Octavia Nasr is leaving the company following the controversy caused by her tweet in praise of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah

Think Progress points out that her tweet wasn't anywhere near as obnoxious as the wingers claim.

THIS WOULD BE A NICE STIMULUS...

(h/t Kevin Drum)

if we could get it. Fareed Zakaria notes that the 500 largest non-financial companies have $1.8 trillion in cash but they don't seem to have any plans to start spending it. I suspect that many of these companies want to see GOP electoral gains this November.

ON DOCTOR DONALD M. BERWICK

UPDATE: Ezra Klein also likes Dr. Berwick and you can read one of Berwick's papers here.

CMS hasn't had a director since 2006 so I'm glad Pres. Obama went around the "Just Say No" GOP senators and appointed one during the congressional recess. The whining has commenced but we also have mentions of support for Berwick.

The American Medical Association has praised Dr. Berwick, saying he is “widely known and respected” for his efforts to improve the quality and safety of care. (NYT)

The American Hospital Association was among the groups that weighed in to support Berwick Wednesday. (AP)

PRAGER THE PIOUS TAKES "US VS. THEM" TO A NEW LEVEL

Given the distrust and dislike conservatives have of most of the world, it was just a matter of time before one of the gasbags launched an all-out attack on non-conservative opinion. I'll give the link to Mediate instead of NRO:

Prager, a conservative, argues that “world opinion” and Left-wing opinion are inherently the same because “world opinion” is “a creation of the Left, reported by the Left.” He feels that international organizations (like the U.N.) and world media outlets create and promote Left-leaning policies, and that the U.S. is the only country to have overcome this worldwide political bias by cultivating an alternative (conservative) media.

SEAN DOES HIS PART FOR ANGLE

He had her on his radio show and though I missed the segment, Hannity said that Angle was the subject of "dirty politics" by Sen. Reid. He may have been referring to Reid's campaign publishing her freakish beliefs.

FATS & SHARRON ANGLE

Limbaugh tried to convince his listeners that Sharron Angle is a normal American, "one of us," despite all the evidence that indicates she's a freakshow.

"CLIMATEGATE" BEGONE!

Another study of the IPCC 2007 report, this time by a Dutch agency, found that the major claims of the report are justified. This is in addition to 4 other recent reports that back the science.

Dutch study broadly backs IPCC climate report

By Fiona Harvey in London and Clive Cookson in Turin
Published: July 6 2010 00:12 | Last updated: July 6 2010 00:12
FINANCIAL TIMES

A Dutch government investigation into climate change science has found that there is no reason to doubt the central claims that global warming is occurring and is found to be the result of human actions.

The chief error in the IPCC report was a claim that the glaciers of the Himalayas could largely disappear by 2035. This was determined to be unfounded and subsequently retracted. Other claims in the report that have been questioned, such as potential drops in crop yields in Africa if climate change progresses, are defended by the IPCC.

As to the overall findings of the 2007 IPCC report, the most comprehensive study of climate science to date and the benchmark used by most of the world’s governments, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency said: “The summary conclusions were well-founded and none were found to contain any significant errors.”

THIS MAY NOT BE THE ONLY ONE...

but this statement from Mike Huckabee might be the only criticism of Wall Street by a Fundie:

"What America really has is not a money problem, it is a moral problem," said Huckabee, who also hosts a weekend TV talk show on Fox News and, starting July 26, a daily news show on some Fox-owned stations.

He said the 2008 debacle on Wall Street, for example, was caused less by a lack of regulation or a failure in finance policy than by the business traders' flouting of "ethical principles ...Wall Street really became Las Vegas-East. It became a legitimized casino."

It's this attitude toward unrestrained capitalism that led Fats Limbaugh to attack the Huckster.

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

Doc Thompson subbed for Glenn Beck today and asked his listeners how long is too long for someone to receive unemployment benefits. I think his preferred answer is somewhere between 1 and 4 weeks but what was noteworthy is not one of his callers said that the length should depend on the state of the economy.

The conservatives, like Nina Easton, have been harping about this for several months now and it seems that they don't care if millions of people are denied UI benefits. Unlike a real small business owner, they can't seem to grasp that lowering consumer demand will only hurt the economy:

The fact that many small firms are seeing little increase in demand for their services and products is decisive for Scott George, owner of Mid-America Dental & Hearing Center, which employs 55 people in the southwestern Missouri town of Mount Vernon.

"I'm not having any trouble getting money," said George, who recently got a $250,000 loan to renovate one of his buildings. But he's not hiring more workers because of little or no growth in sales.

"If I got more people coming through the front door, then I'd need more people to take care of them," George said.

WHO DO PEOPLE WORK FOR?

A couple of days ago I heard a winger claim that about 50% of all jobs were with the government. That's very wrong. Data from BLS, in thousands.

TOTAL PRIVATE EMPLOYEES APRIL 2010 107,584
TOTAL FEDERAL EMPLOYEES APRIL 2010 2,998 (includes the armed forces)
TOTAL STATE EMPLOYEES APRIL 2010 5,169
TOTAL LOCAL EMPLOYEES APRIL 2010 14,421


TOTAL EMPLOYED 130, 172
TOTAL GOVERNMENT 22, 588
PERCENT IN GOVERNMENT 17.35%

MAYBE THE RUBES WILL UNDERSTAND THIS

(h/t Digby)

The deficit hawks and their rube followers often make an analogy to household finance when trying to argue for draconian social spending cuts. One can try to acquaint them with a few concepts from Keynes but that rarely works but Carol Avedon has come up with a terrific metaphor:

"when the patient is hemorrhaging you give it a blood transfusion and right now the doctors are prescribing leeches."

HAVE WE RUN INTO THE 30% THAT BIDEN MENTIONED?

In February 2009, VP Biden stated that there is a significant chance that the stimulus bill may not work. Because this was common knowledge in the Administration, why didn't it act sooner to increase stimulus spending?

Biden Urges Passage of Stimulus Despite Voter Backlash
February 6, 2009, 11:27 AM ET
By Mary Lu Carnevale
Susan Davis reports from Williamsburg, Va., on the House Democrats’ retreat.
WALL STREET JOURNAL

The vice president also offered some trademark candor about the prospects of success.
He recalled a recent White House meeting with the president and senior aides in which they were discussing the many challenges the country faces. “If we do everything right, if we do it with absolute certainty, there’s still a 30% chance we’re going to get it wrong,” was his message at the meeting.

ANOTHER OBAMA ADMINISTRATION ACCOMPLISHMENT

(h/t karoli at Crooks & Liars)

In addition to the 10 improvements I wrote about earlier, the Administration also cracked down on off-shore tax shelters used by corporations and capitalist pigs to avoid paying their fair share.

A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS TOWARD A RATIONAL MID-EAST POLICY

Since Mearsheimer and Walt wrote their ground-breaking essay on Israel/American relations, there has been a slow by steady willingness of MSM outlets to publish writers who also question the value of our supposedly Bestest Evah Ally. The latest one appears in The Daily Beast and was written by Thaddeus Russell, a professor of history at Occidental College.

Russell gets straight to the point:

Does the existence of Israel make Americans and Jews safer?

And here is the paradox: Though support for Israel among Americans, and especially Jewish Americans, remains high according to recent Gallup polls, historical evidence says the answer to The Question is “no.”

there’s one damning fact that’s ignored as often as The Question: There was not a single act of Arab terrorism against Americans before 1968, when the U.S. became the chief supplier of military equipment and economic aid to Israel.

PUBLIC SECTOR HIRING

I'm listening to Billy Cunnigham and he and some of his guests & callers are whining about the increase in government payrolls so I'd thought I would go to BLS and look at the numbers. Here's the graph of ALL government (Fed, state & local) employment:



There's been a slight increase from March to May, followed by a decline in June, presumably due to census hirings and firings.

Hannity and other gasbags also claim that state and local government hiring has gone up, so here's the graph for the state governments.



This one is for local governments.

JUST TO STIR THE POT

Can't we accuse the NRA of being a Maoist organization?

"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." - Mao, The Little Red Book, Ch. 5, 1964

A LITTLE GOOD NEWS

Radio Station KSL in Salt Lake City will be consistent in following its new on-air policy and drop Sean "The Big Lie" Hannity's radio show! The station tries to cover this up by claiming there was another reason:

"We acknowledge the great partnership we've had with Sean Hannity and appreciate his contributions to furthering public dialogue," said Willes. "At the end of the day, we simply feel our future success and competitive advantage reside in creating unique local content, and that is our objective for developing replacement programming."

Hannity has been on KSL Newsradio since October 2001.

The Sean Hannity Show is on the air from 1 to 4 p.m. and will remain on KSL until Oct. 1.

THE "GARLOW MINUTE"...

UPDATE: The real name is "The Garlow Perspective"

is an Jeebus propaganda ad that airs several times a day on KVOI and thanx to Media Matters, I have a little more information about Jim Garlow, the Fundie loon behind it:

Garlow claimed health care reform was "anti-biblical." In a December 16, 2009, anti-health care reform "prayercast" hosted by the Family Research Council, Garlow said that the then-pending health care reform bill was "anti-biblical" and should concern "every follower of Jesus." Garlow went on to explain that he believed the legislation "violated" many of the Bible's Ten Commandments.

Here's the You Tube video:

WILL REAL VALUES DEFEAT HANNITY?

(h/t BuzzFlash)

I'll try to follow this story.

Sean Hannity vs. The Code
Salt Lake Crawler
Glen Warchol
Updated on Jun 28, 2010 01:54PM
Salt Lake Tribune

Conservative talk-radio giant Sean Hannity likely will be the latest victim of a puritanical purge lunched within LDS Church-owned media.

Insiders at KSL radio say that Hannity, even though he has a large and passionate listenership, will be gone from KSL Radio "sooner rather than later" because he doesn't meet the new values code instituted earlier this year by Deseret Media chief executive Mark Willes.

Willes' new mission statement, some might call it a creed, includes pledges like: "I seek to lift, inspire, and help others find enduring happiness" and "I promote integrity, civility, morality, and respect for all people," and "I seek to instill light and knowledge in my work." As you can imagine, Sean Hannity, who is beloved by his listeners for saying things like -- "I'll tell you who should be tortured and killed at Guantanamo -- every filthy Democrat in the U.S. Congress," has a large problem in the civility-respect area.

GOP == TEAM STUPID

On days like this, it's EASY to be a liberal!

GOP chairman: Afghan 'war of Obama's choosing'
Jul 2 02:24 PM US/Eastern
By PHILIP ELLIOTT
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele says Afghanistan is "a war of Obama's choosing" and the conflict "is not something the United States has actively prosecuted or wanted to engage in," comments that drew an immediate rebuke from Republicans and Democrats.

"If he's such a student of history, has he not understood that, you know, that's the one thing you don't do is engage in a land war in Afghanistan? All right? Because everyone who's tried, over a thousand years of history, has failed," Steele said. "And there are reasons for that. There are other ways to engage in Afghanistan."

Conservative Bill Kristol, writing for The Weekly Standard, said Steele should resign.

"There are, of course, those who think we should pull out of Afghanistan, and they're certainly entitled to make their case," wrote Kristol, a consistent supporter of the Afghanistan war. "But one of them shouldn't be the chairman of the Republican Party."

LOOKS LIKE WE LIVE IN MARXIAN TIMES

(h/t Susie Madrak at Crooks & Liars)

No, I don't mean that Pres. Obama is a secret Marxist who's out to destroy Capitalism and the American Way, I mean the unemployment situation in the U.S. The main beneficiaries will be global U.S. corporations, according to this article from Bloomberg:

The 6.8 million Americans out of work for 27 weeks or longer -- a record 46 percent of all the unemployed -- are providing U.S. companies with an eager, skilled and cheap labor pool.

Falling wage pressures will help keep inflation low, contributing to lower Treasury-bond yields, according to Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The lack of wage pressure also “reinforces the case for globally exposed companies” because “there has been better cost containment in the U.S. than in some of our competitors,” said Ethan Harris, head of North America economics at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York.

CLIMATEGATE???

Not so much to this after all.

Climate Scientist Cleared of Altering Data
By JUSTIN GILLIS
Published: July 1, 2010
NY Times

An American scientist accused of manipulating research findings on climate science was cleared of that charge by his university on Thursday, the latest in a string of reports to find little substance in the allegations known as Climategate.

An investigative panel at Pennsylvania State University, weighing the question of whether the scientist, Michael E. Mann, had “seriously deviated from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing, conducting or reporting research or other scholarly activities,” declared that he had not.

Dr. Mann said he was gratified by the findings, the second report from Penn State to clear him. An earlier report had exonerated him of related charges that he suppressed or falsified data, destroyed e-mail and misused confidential information.

Two inquiries in Britain have largely exonerated the scientists there who were caught up in Climategate, though one report did offer minor criticism of statistical techniques.

DEFENDING A DEEPLY-HELD ILLUSION

I've noted before that that Baggers cling to the mythology of the purity of rural America and Prof. J.M. Bernstein describes this illusion as bad metaphysics:

Tea Party anger is, at bottom, metaphysical, not political: what has been undone by the economic crisis is the belief that each individual is metaphysically self-sufficient, that one’s very standing and being as a rational agent owes nothing to other individuals or institutions.
[...]
The great and inspiring metaphysical fantasy of independence and freedom is simply a fantasy of destruction.

YOU READ IT HERE FIRST (MAYBE)

The EPA's action to get Texas refineries in compliance with the Clean Air Act will give the wingnuts something else to whine about.

EPA Overturns 16-Year-Old Texas Permit Program
EPA rejects 16-year-old Texas air permit program, leaves nation's largest refineries in limbo
By RAMIT PLUSHNICK-MASTI Associated Press Writer
HOUSTON June 30, 2010 (AP)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday officially overturned a 16-year-old Texas air permitting program it says violates the Clean Air Act, leaving some of the country's largest refineries in a state of limbo.

The EPA's decision, announced in a statement, will force some 125 refineries and petrochemical plants to invest millions of dollars to get new permits. Many of the plants may also have to invest in updates to comply with federal regulations.

The decision did not come as a surprise to Texas or the industries. EPA regional director Al Armendariz has said for months he would disapprove the permits if Texas did not comply with the Clean Air Act.

The EPA's move on Wednesday addresses Texas' so-called flexible permits, which set a general limit on how much air pollutants an entire facility can release. The federal Clean Air Act requires state-issued permits to set limits on each of the dozens of individual production units inside a plant. The EPA says Texas' system masks pollution and makes it impossible to regulate emissions and protect public health.

Texas has been issuing the permits since 1994 even though it never received the required federal approval. The EPA made clear at least five years ago it believed the permits violated federal air laws, warning Texas and the refinery and petrochemical industry it would take action. The industry, uncomfortable with the uncertainty, sued the EPA in 2008, demanding the agency take action on this and several other programs that remained in limbo.

The EPA was under a court-ordered deadline of June 30 to either approve or disapprove the flexible permit program. On Wednesday, a federal court rejected a last minute appeal by the industry to extend the deadline.

HILARIOUS!

One corrupt firm wags finger at another corrupt firm. (h/t Gawker)

S&P Warns Rival Moody's: We Might Downgrade You
Published: Wednesday, 30 Jun 2010 | 1:17 PM ET
By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer

Standard & Poor's has placed rival ratings agency Moody's on its watch list for a credit downgrade, citing dangers from financial reform legislation that could imperil S&P itself.

The primary danger cited is the threat the bill poses by making it easier for investors to sue ratings agencies for providing bad information.

NEVADA IS EVEN WORSE THAN ARIZONA

Arizona's taxes were the lowest they've been in the last 30 years but because of the Great Recession, we've had to raise the state sales tax and we may end up raising the local sales tax in Tucson.

Nevada, another free market fairy state, is in worse shape.

Nevada a bigger loser than California in economic downturn
By Dale Kasler | Sacramento Bee
Posted on Thursday, July 1, 2010

The state with the ultra-friendly business climate has surpassed Michigan for the nation's highest unemployment rate: 14 percent. Its foreclosure rate is also the nation's highest.

What's more, Nevada's budget deficit is actually worse than California's, in percentage terms.

SOCIAL JUSTICE, CONSERVATIVE STYLE

(h/t Atrios)

It's OK to pay out $30 billion for junk paper from Bear Stearns but it's not OK to lengthen unemployment benefits at a cost of $34 billion.