HuffPo has what I think is a more realistic count:
UPDATE: Even The Architect admits that Pres. Obama is in the lead:
In the first Karl Rove & Co. 2012 Electoral College map, there are 18 states (220 Electoral College votes) where Obama has a solid lead and 15 states (93 EC votes) polling solidly for Romney, according to the latest polling average in each state. There are six states with a combined 82 EC votes classified as “toss--ups” (IA, FL, MO, NC, SC, VA); five states (MI, NH, NV, OH, PA) with a combined 64 EC votes that “lean” Obama; and six states (AZ, GA, KY, SD, TN, TX) with a combined 79 EC votes that “lean” Romney. In other words, there are 17 states and a total of 225 Electoral College votes up for grabs.