Wednesday, April 22, 2015

NO, IT'S NOT 40 PERCENT

Gallup has found in one of it's polls that conservatives account for 40% of Americans and this number of often repeated by trolls and conservative media hacks (but I repeat myself) as a justifucation of their outlandish beliefs. In fact, Gallup reports that conserrvatives comprise much less than 40% as this recent Gallup analysis shows:
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted in March of each year from 2010 to 2015, with an aggregated random sample of 6,154 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of 1,073 liberal Democrats, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of 1,536 moderate/conservative Democrats, the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of 916 moderate/liberal Republicans, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of 1,877 conservative Republicans, the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

1877 divided by 6154 equals 30.5% and I have a hunch the correct percentage is closer to 20 than 30.

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